Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of 19 Ekim 2026, 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 14,558.43; previous close 14,986.78 (daily -2.86%); dollar basis daily performance -2.89%. The index's TL-based loss and the difference between the dollar-based loss being at a negligible level shows that the decline is not exchange-rate driven, but stems directly from a narrowing in local risk appetite. While USD/TRY's daily change of +0.03% trades flat, the entire selling pressure is being read as a position-closing wave specific to the equity market. This picture confirms that the index, which was trying to hold just below the 15,000 psychological support on 16 Ekim, accelerated its selling after losing this support and that the decline spread to a broad base.

Transmission Mechanism and Sector Impact

The daily -2.86% loss is almost perfectly parallel to the -2.89% decline in the BIST 100. This indicates that the selling pressure is not confined to large-scale bank or holding shares, but points to a broad-based value loss encompassing mid- and small-cap companies as well. On the technical side, the emergence of a "STRONG SELL" signal in 20 out of 28 stocks shows that momentum has deepened in negative territory and that the buying appetite needed for a short-term recovery has not yet formed. The RSI average approaching the oversold zone at 37 keeps the risk of the index slipping below the 14,500 level on the agenda if selling pressure maintains its pace; however, the same indicator also points to a technical rebound becoming increasingly likely.

Stock-Based Divergence and Risk

Sectoral divergence is becoming evident within the selling wave: GARAN, as the only bank stock giving a "BUY" signal today, maintains a resilient stance with RSI 52, while SAHOL stands out as the most resilient stock with a -0.06% change and gives a WT=BUY signal. TAVHL, meanwhile, tries to hold at the upper band of the channel (53%) with a limited loss of -0.18%. Conversely, ASTOR's sharpest decline of -9.99% and its entry into the oversold zone with RSI 28 indicate that the unwinding in high-beta stocks continues. The relative resilience of banking stocks (AKBNK, YKBNK) despite sell signals suggests the sector is being viewed as a relative safe haven in this wave. In the short term, leadership from GARAN and SAHOL will be decisive for the index to recover; weakening buying appetite in these two stocks could pave the way for selling pressure to deepen and test the 14,500 support.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Although the Eylül inflation data (TÜFE annual 29.73%, monthly 1.84%; ÜFE annual 27.38%) show that the disinflation process continues, the Merkez Bankası's determination to keep the policy rate at 37% and maintain positive real interest rates remains the central axis of market pricing. The slowdown seen in growth data (Q2 annual 2.3%, below the 2.9% forecast) and in industrial production (Ağustos annual -1.86%) reveals the cost of tight monetary policy to the real sector. Conversely, the Eylül budget deficit rising to 532.2 milyar TL (previous month +12.9 milyar TL increase) triggers fiscal discipline concerns and borrowing needs, creating downside risk on the banking sector's net interest margin expectations. The slight slowdown in credit growth (annual 36.3%) and the contraction of M3 money supply (26.6%) indicate that the cooling on the demand side is also confirmed by monetary aggregates.

The most critical shock from abroad was the ABD September ÜFE coming in much hotter than expected at monthly 1.3% (forecast 0.5%) and annual 6.3% (forecast 5.3%); this data strengthened the probability of the Fed delaying its rate-cut roadmap, while the 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.90% and the VIX rising 21.4% to approach the 20 level weakened global risk appetite. The DXY's 0.16% decline and Brent oil's rise of 3.7% to the 110 dollar band increased margin pressure on the Turkish industry with high imported input costs. Gold's rise to 4181 dollars per ounce signals that the search for safe haven continues despite dollar weakness.

The USD/TRY closing virtually unchanged at 49.5152 (0.02%) shows that the Merkez Bankası managed to keep exchange rate pressure under control through active market operations and reserve flows; the rise in weekly reserves to 64.57 milyar dollars (previous 60.33 milyar) and the August current account balance turning to a 4.05 milyar dollar surplus confirm net foreign exchange inflow behind this resilience. The real effective exchange rate index being at 105.45 as of September (previous 105.0) in a slightly appreciated position partly weakens exporters' competitiveness but provides a critical buffer for the sustainability of the current account. This stability suggests that foreign selling pressure on bank stocks is shaped not by exchange rate concerns but by expectations of global risk-off and narrowing interest rate differentials.

The decisions of the 6th Fon Kurulu meeting on the agenda, the upcoming year's transportation budget reaching 1 trilyon TL, and the EPDK's electricity market changes create policy-supported demand expectations for the construction, cement, iron steel, and energy sectors. Türkiye's increase in investment in response to China's sale of US Treasuries shows the continuation of a diversification strategy in reserve management; the Russia-Ukraine-Triple Summit agenda and volatility in oil prices reflect as supply-side uncertainty underlying the short-term sell signals of refinery stocks. The keeping of electricity and natural gas price hikes off the agenda (Bakan Bayraktar's statement) provides a temporary relief element for industrialists under cost pressure.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Today's data confirms that the selling pressure across BIST 30 is quite broad-based. According to the scan results, 20 out of 28 stocksSTRONG SELL a signal is present. In this table, two stocks drawing attention with positive divergence: GARAN andSAHOL. GARAN, with a daily loss of -1.79%, experienced a limited decline relative to the index, while its 5-day return of +1.70% makes it the only bank stock managing to stay in positive territory. On the technical side, this resilience is also confirmed; GARAN's short-term signal BUY, WT signalBUY and the RSI value of 52.25 is above the neutral zone. In the oscillator votes as well, 15 buys and 6 sells keep the buyers’ advantage. SAHOL, for its part, is the most resilient stock in the index with -0.06% daily, and the WT signal being a "BUY" along with a 5-day return of +2.16% in the positive zone show that the holding stock is in a relatively protected position against the current selling wave.

In the stocks where the selling pressure is most intense, however, the oscillators point to the oversold zone.ASTOR, while posting the steepest decline of the day at -9.99%, with the RSI at 28.13 pulled back into the oversold zone. However, these levels alone do not provide sufficient conditions for a short-term reaction buying, since the stock’s 60-day return of -43.8% points to one of the weakest performances in the index and the WT signal is in a "SELL" position. LikewiseMGROS ( RSI 25.15) andPGSUS ( RSI 27.10) is in the oversold zone, but in both stocks the MACD and CCI20 values show that the selling pressure continues. The current price levels in these stocks point to a zone where the downtrend is gaining momentum rather than to a technical bottom.

Channel positions are another indicator that clarifies the divergence between stocks.TAVHL, while trading at53% of the channel and thus keeping one of the strongest positions in the index, the daily loss being limited to -0.18% and the RSI at 49.24 in the neutral zone show that the stock has been relatively less affected by the selling wave. Against this,TUPRS, Despite strong medium-term performance with a 60-day return of +25.6%, the short-term signal being SELL and trading at only 10% of the channel indicate the impact of recent profit-taking.EREGL andAEFES although they trade at52% and50% of the channel, the RSI values of 42.77 and 36.99 respectively show that these stocks’ positions within the channel do not provide sufficient protection against selling pressure.

The overall technical picture shows that the index is approaching the oversold zone as the average RSI across the index retreats to 37. However, this does not mean the same thing for all stocks. Stocks like GARAN and SAHOL, which carry a BUY signal on WT and whose RSI values remain in the neutral zone, are in a position to lead a possible recovery. In contrast, in stocks whose RSI values fall below 30 while their WT signals are SELL (ASTOR, MGROS, PGSUS, FROTO), the probability that the current selling pressure continues looks higher when all technical indicators are taken into account. For that reason, even if a short-term rebound buying occurs in the index, this move is expected to develop first through relatively stronger stocks such as GARAN and SAHOL; price moves in weak stocks in the oversold zone should be evaluated more cautiously with regard to the continuation of the current trend.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

The current asset sizes in the dataset clearly bring out the scale differences across sectors. KCHOL (3.615.15 billion TL) and SAHOL (2.790.07 billion TL) from the holding structures lead the current assets by a clear margin; the balance sheet size of these two companies continues to be decisive in index movements driven by market value. The fact that GARAN gives the only BUY signal among banking stocks points to a positive divergence in liquidity and earnings quality, independent of current asset size. The relatively resilient performance of AKBNK and YKBNK despite their sell signals shows that balance sheet structures are resilient to pressure across the sector, but that pricing requires selectivity.

It is difficult to establish a direct correlation between the size of current assets and daily performance; however, high liquidity buffers stand out as a factor that limits volatility on days when selling pressure deepens. Companies with high current assets such as THYAO (512.19 billion TL) and TUPRS (439.48 billion TL) are relatively strong given TUPRS's +25.6% return over 60 days, yet TUPRS still posts a SELL signal in the short term, showing that balance sheet size alone is not decisive for direction. On the other hand, ASTOR being the sharpest decliner at -9.99% and its RSI pulling back to 28 suggest that liquidity risk is priced in more quickly in a balance sheet structure where current assets (47.91 billion TL) remain below the sector average.

SAHOL being the most resilient stock with a daily -0.06% and giving a WT=AL signal indicates that the flexibility provided by its 2.790.07 billion TL in current assets is being priced in by the market. TAVHL trading at the upper band of the channel (53%) with a limited loss (-0.18%) shows that its operating cash flow is strong despite a relatively small balance sheet size with 47.61 billion TL in current assets. This table leads to the conclusion that companies with a large balance sheet size are better protected against selling pressure, but that signal strength and technical position must be evaluated together with the fundamentals.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

6) Risk Management and Scenarios

Short-term Scenarios: The index closed at 14.558.43, clearly below the psychological support at 15.000, and the STRONG SELL signal in 20 of 28 stocks confirms that selling pressure is broad-based. In the downside scenario, despite the average RSI of 37 approaching the oversold zone, continued selling in momentum-losing stocks such as ASTOR (-9.99%) and MGROS (RSI 25.15) could carry the index down to the 14.400-14.300 band. The upside scenario, on the other hand, depends on GARAN being the only bank with a BUY signal (RSI 52.25, WT=AL) and SAHOL leading as the most resilient stock with a daily -0.06%; if buying broadens in these two stocks, the index could react toward the 14.700 resistance. However, short-term SELL signals in stocks with 60-day returns of +25.6% such as TUPRS indicate that current rebound attempts may stay limited.

Portfolio Protection Shields: In the current table, the sideways move in USD/TRY (+0.03%) does not add exchange-rate-driven pressure, but the fact that the loss in TL terms runs in parallel with the loss in dollar terms (-2.86% versus -2.89%) shows that the weakening in local risk appetite is not being masked by the exchange rate. Therefore, raising the cash ratio in the portfolio would both create a buying opportunity in case of a possible recovery in the index, which is approaching oversold territory, and limit position losses if selling pressure deepens. Since there is no clear signal beyond GARAN and TAVHL for new positions, stop-loss levels in existing stocks should be kept tight, and risk should be reduced as a priority in stocks such as VAKBN (channel9%) and TUPRS (channel10%), which are trading close to the lower channel band. Increasing the cash weighting requires patience until the 14.400-14.700 band, where the market will find its direction, becomes clear, in line with the cash line in the model portfolio in section 7.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Today's technical scan shows that 20 of the 28 stocks have a STRONG SELL signal, indicating a clear weakening of risk appetite across the market. When signal strength, channel position and the Pearson correlation coefficient are assessed together in this table, only GARAN and TAVHL show limited potential for positive divergence. GARAN stands out as the only bank with a BUY signal (WT=BUY, RSI 52.25), while TAVHL requires a cautious approach because its daily loss stayed limited to -0.18% and the oscillators are weighted toward SELL. SAHOL's WT=BUY signal and its resilient daily showing of -0.06% provide a rationale for holding existing positions; however, with the overall picture at SELL, it does not carry enough signal strength for new purchases. In this framework, keeping a high cash weight in the portfolio stands out as the main strategy for protection against a possible deepening of selling pressure.