Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

On October 22, 2026, at 07:23 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 14.463.64; previous close 14.676.53 (daily -1.45%); dollar-based daily performance -1.52%. The TL-based loss of the index being more limited than the dollar-based loss results from USD/TRY trading sideways with +0.07% daily. This divergence shows that selling pressure is fed by the contraction of local risk appetite independent of currency movement; the TL return not covering the dollar-based return can be interpreted as an exit signal for foreign investors.

Transmission Mechanism: From Index to Sectors

The%-1.45 decline in XU030 shows that the profit-taking after the strong3.20% rise on 21 October has spread across a broad base. After the rally led by banking and aviation on the previous day, the formation of a "STRONG SELL" signal in 20 of 30 stocks today indicates that the rise has largely been given back in a single session. The RSI average falling back to 38 shows that the index is approaching oversold territory but has not entered it yet; this means selling pressure may continue in the short term, but if the decline deepens, technical reaction buying may come onto the agenda.

Sector Impact and Risky Positions

Sectoral distribution of selling pressure is uneven: in Banking Yapı Kredi (bank) while giving only a "BUY" signal, Garanti BBVA (bank) stands out with a relatively resistant stance, WT buy signal and positive MACD. On the other hand, TAV Airports in the position of being the only stock resisting the index; however, the fact that RSI and CCI indicators are in the overbought zone shows that this resistance may just be a short-term reaction and carries the risk of profit taking. Tüpraş (company) While carrying rebound potential at the bottom of the channel, it gives a short-term SELL signal; Pegasus (company) andMigros (company) is producing a "BUY AT THE BOTTOM" signal in the oversold zone. This picture shows that the selling pressure across the index is intertwined with selective buying opportunities, but if the 14.463 support is broken, these opportunities will also become risky.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

At yesterday's close, USD/TRY drew an almost flat line at 49,5974 (daily change +0.06%), while the dollar-based return of the BIST 30 index was -1.52%, below the TL-based -1.45%; this sharp divergence signals that foreign portfolio outflows are accelerating and domestic institutional buying power cannot cover the currency risk. According to CBRT data, annual credit growth, as of end-August, stands at 36.3%, and since real interest rates remain deeply negative, credit demand continues in an inflationary structure; however, the September CPI data, with a monthly increase of 2.07% and an annual level of 27.38%, shows that inflation is structurally flat and delays interest rate cut expectations. This picture, in the banking sector (Yapı Kredi (bank), Garanti BBVA (bank)) supports the preservation of the net interest margin, while in the real sector it indicates that imported input cost pressure continues to squeeze margins; if the October CPI data shows monthly inflation above 2.5%, real interest rate expectations will turn again and the relative resilience in bank stocks could turn into selling pressure.

Geopolitical tension in the Middle East (alarm of an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, US personnel withdrawal) pushed Brent oil to 109.99 USD/barrel, while WTI's 3.67% decline indicates that the supply risk premium is regionally focused. Turkey's August current account deficit was measured at 4.05 billion USD, while imports rising to 31.21 billion USD (exports 25.98 billion USD) reminds of the current account balance's sensitivity to energy prices; if oil remains persistently above 110 USD, it will pose a risk to current account targets and trigger expectations of TL depreciation. In this scenario, the aviation sector (TAV Airports) is squeezed between fuel cost pressure and demand risk, while the refinery (Tüpraş (company)) can provide natural protection through crack margins and inventory gains; however, if Brent falls back below 100 USD, the relief in energy input costs could revive hopes of recovery in industrial production (August monthly -1.0%, annual -1.86%).

In US macro data, core PCE inflation was at3.0% on an annual basis in September, while the Fed kept the policy rate at4.0%; DXY moved sideways in the 101.80 band. The rising trend in US 10-year Treasury yields (5-year4.97%) is strengthening the "risk-off" tone against emerging market assets; the low level of VIX at 17.16 shows that market players have not yet entered panic selling, while the withdrawal of liquidity is proceeding slowly. In the Euro Zone, the weakening of August industrial production at -0.5% monthly and -1.1% annually, together with core inflation staying at2.5%, makes it difficult for the ECB to take steps on the easing path; this also ties the sustainability of the 55.68 level in the EUR/TRY parity to corporate FX selling. If the US November employment data (NFP) come in above 29 thousand, the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative will strengthen and foreign selling pressure on BIST 30 may make the 14.400 support test mandatory.

In the insurance sector, premium production exceeding 1 trillion TL (nominal growth) and retail sales' August monthly increase of 1.4% (annual 10.1%) indicate that, in an environment where real wages remain below inflation, consumer spending is financed by credit; this raises the question of whether the "buy at the bottom" Migros (company) MGROS) after a deep decline in consumption-oriented stocks like Migros (company) ( is a technical rebound or a structural recovery. The increase in automotive and housing prices remaining below headline inflation indicates that pricing power is weakening and company margins (especially automotive and white goods) will continue to be squeezed. In this framework, macro data aligns with technical signals (RSI average 38, "STRONG SELL" in 20 of 30 stocks); however, if USD/TRY breaks the 49.70 resistance and accelerates toward 50.00, technical oversold levels will become invalid and the index could deepen toward the 14.200-14.000 band.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Today's session presents a picture where the selling pressure across the BIST 30 is clearly reflected in technical indicators. According to screening data, 20 of the 30 stocks in the index produce "STRONG SELL" signals, while only 3 stocks (Yapı Kredi (bank), TAV Airports andGaranti BBVA (bank)) can hold at a general "BUY" or "NEUTRAL" level. This divergence reveals that the selling pressure is broad-based rather than sector-specific, but banking and aviation, two names with high operational strength, show relative resilience. The RSI average being at 38 indicates that the index is approaching the oversold zone overall, but the loss of momentum in oscillators has not yet produced sufficient signals for bargain buying.

Yapı Kredi (bank) ( YKBNK) today's most notable example of resistance against the index. It is the only bank position with a "BUY" signal in the general scan; the short and medium-term trend indicators point to buying and the WT (WaveTrend) indicator also gives a "BUY" signal. The TradingView oscillator vote shows only 4 sell signals against 17 buy signals, RSI at 53.23 stays above the neutral zone and CCI20 at 101.64 is in the buying zone, confirming that the stock is relatively protected from the selling wave across the index. However, the channel position at48% shows that the stock is balanced at the midpoint of the rising channel and that buying at 36.42 TL may still be premature; therefore, even though the current signals are strong, the behaviour of the index at the 14.463 support will be decisive for new positions.

TAV Airports ( TAVHL), It stands out as the only stock resisting the index. Trading at 287.00 TL with a limited daily gain of0.26%, the stock shows a positive divergence of6.3% over 60 days. The 18 buy signals in the oscillator vote and the RSI at 64.21 in the strong zone show that momentum is on the buyers’ side. However, CCI20 at 206.09 and StochK at 87.14 indicate that the stock has entered the overbought zone in the short term; a channel position of104% shows that the price is testing the upper band of the rising channel and that profit-taking risk is rising at this point. While the current "BUY" signal is maintained, continued movement above 287.00 TL requires volume support; otherwise, a return from the overbought zone could combine with the selling pressure in the index and trigger a sharp correction.

Garanti BBVA (bank) ( GARAN) keeps its relatively resilient position in the banking sector. Although the general scan signal is "NEUTRAL", the WT indicator's "BUY" signal and MACD at 0.69 being in the positive zone show that short-term momentum is positive. The RSI at 53.33 and the CCI20 value of 127.87 confirm that the stock is following a buyer-friendly course despite the selling wave in the index overall. The channel position of59% shows that the price is balanced at the mid-upper point of the rising channel; the price at 132.60 TL is performing above the sector average with a5.0% positive return on a 60-day basis. However, the daily loss of1.49% shows that the selling pressure in the index is starting to seep into this stock as well; therefore, sustained closes above 132.60 TL are required for a return to the "BUY" signal.

Tüpraş (company) ( TUPRS) andPegasus (company) ( PGSUS), stand out as two stocks positioned at opposite technical poles. Tüpraş (company)' has a short-term "SELL" and long-term "BUY" signal; the channel position at 6% shows that the price is near the bottom of the uptrend channel and carries rebound potential from the 359.25 TL level. However, the RSI at 38.39 and CCI20 at -166.39 indicate that momentum is still in favor of sellers and that if the channel bottom is broken, the decline could accelerate. Pegasus (company) on the other hand, with the RSI approaching the oversold zone at 34.31, and the WT indicator producing a "BUY AT THE BOTTOM" signal, shows that it is a potential candidate for a contrarian position. However, the ADX at 40.37 reveals that the current downtrend is strong and that the "BUY AT THE BOTTOM" signal should not yet be interpreted as a trend reversal; the price at 129.30 TL, with a 15.8% loss on a 60-day basis, is one of the weakest performances in the index.

Migros (company) ( MGROS), Another stock whose WT indicator produced a "BUY AT THE BOTTOM" signal after a deep decline. A 60-day loss of27.8% and an RSI of 30.26 show that the stock is under significant selling pressure; however, ADX at 43.14 points to a strong downtrend and suggests that the "BUY AT THE BOTTOM" signal may be premature. The price at 454.00 TL sits at34% of the channel, which shows that the stock has balanced at the lower-middle point of its descending channel. The overall scan signal being "SELL" reveals that attempts to buy on dips are not yet technically supported; therefore, the stock may only see reaction buying if the selling pressure across the index eases.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

In terms of balance sheet sizes, holding companies stand out as the determining factor of their financial structures. Koç Holding (company)' with 3.615.15 billion TL and Sabancı Holding (company)' in 2,790.07 milyar TL current assets, these companies' consolidated structures point to a liquidity pool well above sector averages. However, this size should not be read directly as a profitability indicator; the operational performance of participations within holding groups will be decisive in how these figures reflect to the investor. On the other hand, while the high level of current assets gives an idea about the capacity to meet short-term liabilities, since the maturity distribution of the debt structure and leverage ratios are not included in the data set, evaluating these sizes alone as a financial soundness indicator remains insufficient.

Relatively strong resistance in the banking and aviation sectors is also showing itself on the fundamental side. Yapı Kredi (bank) and in the banking group where Garanti stands out, current asset items directly contain large volumes due to the nature of bank balance sheets; however, since these data do not include banking-specific fundamental indicators such as credit risk or capital adequacy, it would be healthier to limit stock-based evaluation to technical signals. TAVHL' being the only stock resisting in the index can be linked to the strength of operational cash flow and sectoral expectations rather than balance sheet size (72.63 milyar TL current assets); however, sales or profit margin data supporting this interpretation is not included in the report.

The search for fundamental value in stocks in the oversold region offers a framework limited to balance sheet sizes. PGSUS' un 91.42 milyar TL and MGROS' un 88.38 milyar TL current assets show that these companies' operational scales are at a level that cannot be underestimated. However TUPRS' Despite being one of the companies with the highest current assets with 439.48 milyar TL, its giving a SELL signal in the short term suggests that balance sheet size does not direct price movement on its own; sectoral margin pressures and fluctuations in refinery profitability are more decisive. At this point, current asset data provides only a lower bound information regarding liquidity capacity; the lack of data on profitability, indebtedness and cash generation performance narrows the scope of fundamental analysis.

It is not possible to make a profitability comparison between companies with the current data set; only a liquidity perspective based on current asset sizes can be presented. In this case, the decision to increase the cash weight of the model portfolio is also consistent with the fact that there is no clear buying rationale based on balance sheet size on the fundamental side. YKBNK andTAVHL The protection of their positions relies on the strength of these stocks' technical signals; fundamental data neither confirms nor undermines these positions. Investors' separately examining the profitability and indebtedness data not included in this report appears necessary, especially for value investment decisions in stocks in the oversold region.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Downside Main Scenario: The index closed down1.45% from 14.463.64, and the "STRONG SELL" signal in 20 of 30 stocks confirms that selling pressure is broad-based. The main risk in this picture is that, along with a break of the 14.463 support, selling accelerates and the index moves toward a lower support zone. Although the average RSI of 38 shows that the oversold zone (30 and below) is being approached, oversold conditions can persist for a long time in markets in a downtrend. If this scenario materializes, increasing the cash weight in the portfolio and not opening new positions is critically important to limit potential losses. The dollar-based loss (1.52%) exceeding the TL return should be read as a signal of foreign investor outflow, and position sizes should be reviewed against currency risk.

Upside and Hedge Shields: For the index to recover, it first needs to close above 14.600. In that case,Yapı Kredi (bank) ( WT=BUY, oscillator BUY) andTAV Airports ( A short-term rebound buying may be seen in stocks such as WT=BUY, oscillator STRONG BUY). However, even in this scenario, given the widespread current "STRONG SELL" signals, a technical correction rather than a sustained rally should be expected. The main shield for protecting the portfolio is keeping the cash ratio high. Accordingly, the cash weight in the model portfolio should be increased and onlyYapı Kredi (bank) andTAV Airports preserving positions would both protect capital in a downside scenario and provide the opportunity to benefit from these strong stocks in a possible reaction move. The reason no new buying is recommended is that the selling pressure across the market and the technical picture, which is approaching the oversold zone but has not yet settled, do not give enough confidence to add to existing positions.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Today's data set shows that selling pressure has become pronounced across BIST 30, with a "STRONG SELL" signal formed in 20 of the 30 stocks. In this table, the cash weight was increased to preserve the return-risk balance of the portfolio; positions were limited to a small number of stocks verified by signal strength, oscillator support and relative momentum. No new purchases are recommended; the aim is to hold existing positions and manage them according to scenario conditions.