Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of 12:33 on 23 October 2026 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13,658.96; previous close 14,010.86 (daily -2.51%); dollar-based daily performance -2.74%. The index's TL-based loss stays slightly below the dollar-based loss due to USD/TRY's limited rise of +0.23% within the same day; however, this currency move is not enough to offset the selling pressure. XU100's fall of -2.51%, exactly the same rate as XU030, shows that the sell-off is not specific to a few stocks but broad-based. The fact that all 30 stocks in the scan carry "SELL" or "STRONG SELL" signals and no stock has a "BUY" signal confirms that market breadth is at the bottom and that the index's decline stems not from a sectoral rotation but from a systematic risk.

The transmission mechanism shows that selling pressure first created a break in high-beta and weakening-trend stocks, then these breaks spread to the overall index. GUBRF' Its experiencing the day's sharpest decline of -9.95% and the ADX value of 47.11 signaling the strongest trend sell indicates that momentum loss in the fertilizer sector has accelerated; EREGL' Its retreat to the RSI 29.0 level at -9.69% shows the deepening channel break in steel. These two stocks show that the selling started in sector leaders and then jumped to more liquid names such as banking and telecom: TCELL -% 5.68 while RSI falls to 28.4, GARAN -% Even with 3.04 and RSI at 40.26, the STRONG SELL signal pulls the index's center of gravity down. On the defensive side only TUPRS (+% 0.07) and BIMAS (+% 0.27) diverges with a positive close; however BIMAS' its carrying of the STRONG SELL signal suggests that this resistance stems more from the search for a safe haven for cash flow in the decline than from a fundamental increase in demand.

On the risk side, the RSI value of 14+ stocks falling below 30 (GUBRF 24.45, ASTOR 25.11, MGROS 25.65) although it strengthens the likelihood of a short-term technical rebound, ADX 40+ GUBRF, MGROS andTHYAO' the strong trend sales indicate that these reactions may not be lasting. 60-day divergence data, TUPRS' in diverges positively with +21.5% while ASTOR' un -51.2%, SASA' nın -35.6% and MGROS' un -30.7% shows deep value losses; this picture shows that the selling wave has turned into a structural valuation correction in high-beta stocks with weakening fundamental profitability, TUPRS while revealing that cash-flow strong names are relatively protected. The currency's +0.23% move fails to limit losses in TL assets, while the dollar-based -2.74% decline shows that from a foreign investor's perspective the loss is deeper than it appears on a TL basis and that this situation could increase selling pressure.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

The day's most pronounced macro divergence was the US PPI for September coming in at monthly 1.3% (annual 6.3%), clearly above market expectations (0.5% / 5.3%); while this print strengthens the Fed's "higher for longer rates" script, the DXY's decline staying limited at 0.17% shows that risk appetite has not completely shut down but has entered a search for direction. The same day, the ECB held its policy rate fixed at 2.65%, while the Euro Zone's industrial production falling 0.5% monthly in August (expectation 0.0) reminded of weakness on the European demand side, pulling down the next-quarter earnings vision of export-oriented BIST 30 companies (especially automotive and white goods). On the Türkiye side, September inflation coming in below the forecast (2.3% / 30.3%) at monthly 1.84% (annual 29.73%) and the PPI retreating to annual 27.38% weaken the probability of a cut at the Merkez Bankası's November meeting despite real rates remaining in positive territory; however, credit growth falling to annual 36.3% in August (previous 36.6%) and consumer loan rates rising to 64.74% indicate that the domestic demand misalignment is still continuing through bank margins.

Exchange rate dynamics explain the index's dollar-based performance: USD/TRY rose 0.08% to 49.62 while XU030 lost 2.74% in dollar terms; thus the currency depreciation was insufficient to offset selling pressure and the main driver of foreign selling (in the scan 30 stocks fully SELL/STRONG SELL) was not currency protection but flight from global risk (VIX up 19.7% to 20) and commodity cost shock. Brent's rise of 4.1% to 113.30 USD/varile, TUPRS' in being today's only stock with a positive close (+0.07%, r=0.45) and consistent with its +21.5% divergence over 60 days; refinery margins and diesel imports (Russian agreement news) provide a relative advantage to the energy sub-sector. In contrast GUBRF (% 9.95 decline, RSI 24.45, ADX 47.11) and EREGL (% 9.69, RSI 29) such as in industrial companies with high energy input and narrow margins, currency and oil cost pressure triggered technical breakdowns.

In the news flow, ASELSAN' its 25.98 mln USD export contract (KAP disclosure) reminds that the defense industry's foreign-currency revenue, foreign-currency cost structure provides natural protection against currency depreciation; however, the low index weight and the broad market's bottoming (BUY signal zero) were not enough to reflect this positive news at the index level. S&P Global Ratings' assessment that "risks are manageable" in Turkish banking and speculation of a 100 basis point cut targeting the Merkez Bankası (Sabah Ekonomi) did not fundamentally break the technical selling pressure in bank stocks (GARAN -% 37, RSI 40, STRONG SELL) did not fundamentally break the technical selling pressure; because the expectation of a narrowing real interest rate keeps the risk of net interest margin (NIM) compression alive. In summary: while macro data support the "oversold technical rebound" scenario (number of stocks with RSI<30 is 14+), for a lasting trend reversal USD/TRY must retreat below 49.50, Brent must fall below 110 USD, and VIX must drop below 18; otherwise in the bear scenario (EREGL/GUBRF channel) the index could deepen toward the 13.400-13.200 band.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

TUPRS: Only positive divergence in the selling wave. The stock that finished the day at +0.07% at 352.25 TL is the only stock among the 30 scanned whose overall signal is only "SELL". While its 60-day return of +21.5% diverges clearly from the index overall, it shows the strongest relative performance with r=0.45. On the oscillators, the RSI at 35.99 sits just above the oversold zone; the values StochK 8.38 and CCI20 -158.0 indicate that short-term momentum is weak, but with ADX 32.83 the current downtrend is not strong. With a channel position of 7% it is above the average; this shows the price is running near the upper band of the channel and relative strength is preserved. However, the short-term signal being "SELL" reveals that volume support is needed to overcome this resistance.

EREGL andGUBRF: Both ends of the sectoral collapse. EREGL While closing the day at -9.69% and 31.70 TL, channel position -35% shows the deepest negative deviation in the scan; r=-0.62 confirms relative performance weakness. Despite being in the oversold region with RSI 29.0, CCI20 -399.7 shows that oversold conditions have deepened and no short-term recovery signal has been generated.GUBRF While recording the day's sharpest decline at -9.95%, ADX 47.11 points to the strongest trend sell in the scan; RSI 24.45 and StochK -0.0 values indicate that momentum has completely exhausted, and MACD -29.21 shows that downward momentum continues. The fact that all short, medium and long-term signals are "SELL" in both stocks confirms that the current decline is not just a daily move but a multi-timeframe weakness.

TCELL: Telekomda accelerating weakness. -% The stock retreating to 88.00 TL with 5.68, channel position -33% withEREGL' Following that, it shows the second deepest negative deviation. The combination of r=-0.77 with the weakness in relative performance, together with RSI 28.4 and CCI20 -320.38 values, demonstrates that the selling pressure is as much trend-driven as momentum-driven. With ADX 28.27, trend strengthGUBRF andTHYAO' Even though it lags behind, the fact that all short and medium-term signals are "SELL" and that it remains in the oversold region with StochK 5.07 shows that buying at current levels is premature.

GARAN: The pressure of the bank's weight on the index. -% The stock that fell 3.04 to 124.60 TL shows the relative performance closest to the index average with r=0.01; this indicates that the sell-off in bank stocks was the main carrier of the index decline. Although the RSI of 40.26 is at a higher level than other oversold stocks, the CCI20 -130.29 and StochK 35.45 values indicate that short-term momentum remains in negative territory. With ADX 17.71 trend strength is weak; this shows that the decline has not yet turned into a strong trend, but with short- and medium-term signals at "SELL", recovery attempts may remain limited.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

From the perspective of balance sheet sizes, the sectoral distribution of current assets indicates that liquidity buffers are differentiating.SAHOL, With 2,790.07 milyar TL, it has by far the largest current asset item; this reflects the breadth of the company's trade and financial receivables in the consolidated balance sheet due to its holding structure.TUPRS' Its current assets of 439.48 milyar TL are compatible with the high inventory and trade receivable cycle of refinery operations;EKGYO' Its 387.01 milyar TL indicates the weight of ongoing contract assets in construction and real estate projects. On the other hand, standing out in today's sharp sell-offGUBRF' Its 48.99 milyar TL andASTOR' Its 47.91 milyar TL current assets point to a liquidity profile remaining below sector averages; this situation can be considered a factor limiting balance sheet flexibility during price declines.

The relationship between profitability and balance sheet structure is more pronounced in companies that support a defensive stance.TUPRS' Its 439.48 milyar TL current assets, along with being one of the rare stocks that closed positively during the day, show that the operational scale and inventory valuation advantages are partially reflected in pricing.BIMAS' Its 152.41 milyar TL current assets are compatible with the fast inventory turnover rate and cash generation capacity in the retail sector; this liquidity structure can be read as the fundamental ground supporting the stock's limited positive close of 0.27% despite the selling pressure across the index. In contrast,EREGL' Despite its 269.67 milyar TL current assets, its 9.69% decline shows that balance sheet size alone does not provide price protection; it reveals that the sectoral demand break and channel break overshadow the balance sheet strength.

On the basis of liquidity ratios, it is difficult to establish a direct correlation between the absolute size of current assets and daily performance. For example,TCELL' Its 180.56 milyar TL current assets, despite reflecting the stable cash flow of telecom operations, the stock lost 5.68% in value; this shows that balance sheet liquidity was insufficient to stop the technical selling pressure. Similarly,FROTO' of 238.89 billion TL and TOASO' of 152.29 billion TL current assets, although they indicate strong working capital positions in the automotive sector, since the intraday price movements of these companies are not included in the data set, it cannot be assessed whether the balance sheet strength is reflected in the price. The current assets remained low TRALT ( 24.88 billion TL) and TRMET ( 25.54 billion TL) such companies' narrow liquidity buffer stands out as a fragility element limiting balance sheet flexibility in a possible market fluctuation.

As a result, since the current fundamental data set only includes current asset sizes, a definitive assessment based on ratios such as profitability margins, leverage ratios, or return on equity cannot be made. However, when combined with the day's performance data, it is seen that having high current assets alone does not provide defensiveness; TUPRS andBIMAS as seen in the examples, liquidity gains meaning together with sectoral resilience. EREGL andGUBRF in sharply falling stocks like, it is understood that the size of the balance sheet does not provide sufficient protection against sectoral fragility and technical deterioration.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Downside scenarios: On October 23, 2026 Friday, the 2.51% decline in the index, together with all 30 stocks carrying SELL or STRONG SELL signals, shows that market breadth has bottomed. This picture increases the risk of continued selling pressure. Particularly EREGL' its 9.69% decline and retreat to the channel -35 level and GUBRF' its 9.95% loss and exhibition of a very strong trend sell with ADX 47.11 indicates that sectoral collapses may spread to the index. Additionally, the RSI value falling below 30 in 14 stocks (GUBRF 24.45, ASTOR 25.11, MGROS 25.65) although it indicates the oversold region, in an environment of strong trend sells these levels can be sustained for a long time. USD/TRY's rise to 49.74 with a 0.23% increase, bringing the dollar-based loss to 2.74%, further eroded the TL return; the exchange rate's move toward the 50.00 psychological resistance could accelerate foreign outflows and push the index below 13,500.

Upside scenarios: Oversold conditions are setting the stage for a short-term technical rebound. TUPRS' its demonstration of the strongest relative performance with a limited loss of 0.07% and r=0.45, and its 60-day positive divergence of 21.5%, indicate an independent resistance in the energy sector from the index. BIMAS' its maintenance of a defensive stance with a 0.27% increase shows the relative resilience of consumer demand in retail. Under the leadership of these two stocks, in stocks with RSI in the 25-30 band (ASTOR, MGROS, GUBRF) a possible rebound rally could pull the index to the 13.800-14.000 band. However, for this scenario to materialize, the selling pressure in banking stocks must first cease; GARAN' its 3.04% decline, RSI remaining at 40.26, and carrying a STRONG SELL signal reveal that the sector, the locomotive of the index, has not yet given a recovery signal.

Portfolio protection shields: In this environment, keeping the portfolio's cash/liquidity ratio high will serve as a buffer against downside risks and create opportunities in a possible rebound. In light of current data, keeping 30-35% of the portfolio in cash or similar liquid assets will provide buying power if the index falls below 13,500. If positions are to be carried, TUPRS andBIMAS concentrate on relatively resilient stocks such as; EREGL, GUBRF, TCELL in stocks experiencing channel breakdown and with RSI below 30, new entries should be avoided. Moreover, the presence of SELL signals in all 30 stocks makes tightening stop-loss levels (e.g., 3-4% band) mandatory for existing positions; because in markets with strong trend sells, support levels can break quickly.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

As of October 23, 2026, all 30 stocks in the scan are generating SELL or STRONG SELL signals; no BUY signal is found. This picture evaluates stocks showing positive divergence or with the lowest selling pressure in the current data set, preserving the risk-return balance.TUPRS, being one of two stocks that closed positively with a daily %+0.07, a 60‑day return of %+21.5 and an r=0.45 giving the strongest relative performance, it is kept in the portfolio; however, its weight is kept limited because its overall signal is SELL. All other positions are structured to facilitate a move to cash if the decline deepens.