1. Day's Data (summary)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 23:18 |
| BIST 30 (XU030) last close | 13,934.73 |
| BIST 30 previous close | 13,948.59 |
| BIST 30 daily change | -0.10% |
| BIST 100 (XU100) last close | 11,151.03 |
| BIST 100 previous close | 11,151.96 |
| BIST 100 daily change | -0.01% |
| USD/TRY | 49.78 ( previous 49.74, daily +0.09%) |
| BIST 30 daily performance in dollar terms | -0.19% |
2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism
As of Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 22:32 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.934.73; previous close 13.948.59 (daily -0.10%); in dollar terms daily performance -0.19%. XU100 at 11.151.03, effectively flat with a daily -0.01%; USD/TRY settled at 49.78 with a limited move of +0.09%. The calm course of the exchange rate prevented the TL-based loss from widening significantly in dollar terms; a currency-neutral ground is maintained in pricing. However, the technical scan contradicts this quiet: all 30 stocks are in SELL/STRONG SELL signals; the index stability masks the selling weight in the broad market.
The transmission mechanism of the divergence is clear: dip-buying attempts in the deeply declining automotive and energy stocks balanced the selling pressure in aviation and banking at the index level. ASTOR +% After a sharp reaction following the -42.4% loss over 60 days at 9.95, the WT=BOTTOM BUY signal TOASO, ENKAI, FROTO andASTOR' was also triggered; TOASO' the +5.56% increase there shows that the reaction buying is spreading in the automotive sector. In the opposite pool, THYAO -% with 2.03, RSI 28.19 and ADX 46.99 values continue the strong downtrend, while VAKBN +% despite 2.32, it remained in a STRONG SELL signal. TUPRS, With the only WT=AL signal in the scan, it maintains its relative breakout position with a 60-day +26.8% return and a relative strength value of r=0.31.
On the risk side, the base scenario relies on the index remaining stuck in the 13.900–14.000 band; a sharp close below the band would mean the selling in the broad base deepens. The upside scenario, on the other hand, is MGROS ( RSI 23.69; ADX 48.94), GUBRF ( RSI 23.43) and SASA ( RSI 25.15) depends on technical reactions coming from the oversold extremes at the start; these should be read as bounce candidates, not as trend reversals. ASTOR' The high volatility risk there requires gradual and small position sizing in the dip-buy list. A breakdown in the calm course of USD/TRY at 49.78 would be the first condition invalidating the currency-neutral pricing.
3. Macro Outlook and News Flow
The fact that inflation remained flat at 1.84% monthly and 29.73% annually, while the policy rate fell to 36.0%, means a one-point easing from yesterday's 37.0% level. This easing gives a positive signal in terms of slightly lower credit costs in a high-inflation environment and banks being able to protect their net interest margin with lending rates. However, inflation still running high erodes real returns; this may limit investors' risk appetite. This view is supported by the data of the policy rate staying at 36.0% and inflation remaining flat at 1.84% . If inflation rises faster than expected or the policy rate is hiked again, the positive impact on banks' margins could be invalidated.
While the exchange rate showed a slight rise at 49,756199 TL, Brent oil fell to 110.34 USD/barrel; meanwhile, exports were recorded at 25.98 billion USD, imports at 31.21 billion USD, and the trade deficit continues at –5.23 billion USD. The stable exchange rate limits import costs for energy and refinery companies (e.g., TUPRS) while the falling oil price eases raw material costs; this creates short-term support in the energy sector. This assessment is consistent with USD/TRY 49,756199 TRY, Brent 110.34 USD/barrel, and foreign trade data. However, a sudden depreciation of the exchange rate or a rise in oil prices could increase cost pressure and negatively affect the performance of energy and industrial stocks.
Consumer confidence fell to 84.8%, down from the previous 91.9%, while retail sales rose 1.4% month-on-month; the capacity utilization rate recorded a slight increase at 74.5%. Falling confidence leads to selling pressure and sell-side weight in stock prices in the retail and automotive sectors (MGROS, TOASO) while slightly rising retail sales feed long-term recovery expectations. This situation is explained by the data of consumer confidence at 84.8% and retail sales up 1.4% . If consumer confidence rises again or retail sales gain stronger momentum, the current sales pressure could ease and bottom-fishing opportunities may emerge.
4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks
XU030 is trading at 13.934.73 points at 0.10%, while all 30 stocks in BIST-30 have generated SELL or STRONG SELL signals; this shows that despite the index staying flat in a narrow range, the underlying selling pressure is still strong. Technical scan results indicate that bottom-buy signals are emerging especially in the automotive and energy sectors, but the overall trend is still downward. Most ADX values staying above 30 confirms that the market is still in a trending structure. In this context, stocks carrying bottom-buy signals may offer short-term recovery opportunities; however, caution should be exercised against volatility risk when taking positions.
ASTOR Energy rose 9.95% to 172.40 TL and gave a WT "BUY AT DIP" signal after a 60-day decline of 42.4%. RSI 40.37, MACD –25.64 and ADX 37.02 show that the stock price is in the oversold zone and momentum remains weak. Channel width of 67% and r –0.94 reveal that the price is oscillating in a wide range, but downward pressure is still dominant. In this technical profile, the dip-buy signal may offer a short-term entry opportunity; however, given that the trend is still down, position size should be kept limited.
Tofaş (company), It rose 5.56% to 231.5 TL and produced a WT "BUY AT DIP" signal after a 60-day decline of 15.1%. RSI 37.22, MACD –13.35 and ADX 34.07 indicate that the stock price is in the oversold zone and momentum is slowing. The channel is 18% and r –0.49, showing that the price is moving in a narrow range, but the downward bias still prevails. The dip-buy signal aligns with short-term recovery expectations in the automotive sector; nevertheless, stop-loss levels should be set within risk management.
Tüpraş (company), It closed down 0.82% at 361.5 TL, showing a 60-day gain of 26.8% and a WT "AL" signal; RSI 41.83, MACD –7.99 and ADX 33.8 reveal that it is in a relative strength leader position but momentum is limited. Turkish Airlines, It is trading in a strong downtrend at 253.0 TL with a 2.03% decline, RSI 28.19, MACD –9.49 and ADX 46.99. VakıfBank rose 2.32% to 30.88 TL, producing a STRONG SELL signal with RSI 39.6, MACD –0.7 and ADX 21.48, while MGROŞ, down 0.76% at 423.75 TL, is in the oversold zone with RSI 23.69, MACD –26.26 and ADX 48.94 and carries a potential bounce signal. These four stocks reflect trend and momentum differences across different sectors; Tüpraş (company) appears relatively more resilient, while THYAO andVAKBN is under net selling pressure, and MGROŞ may offer a possible short-term recovery opportunity. Within the risk management framework, entry-exit points should be clarified for each stock based on technical levels.
5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation
Current Asset Ranking and Scale
In the balance sheet set, the broadest current asset base is concentrated in holding codes: KCHOL 3.615.15 billion TL, SAHOL 2.790.07 billion TL. Excluding holdings, the top three are THYAO ( 512.19 billion TL), TUPRS ( 439.48 billion TL) and EKGYO' (387.01 billion TL); ASELS (281.30), EREGL (269.67), ENKAI ( 248.56) and FROTO ( 238.89 billion TL) form the second band. The set covers 20 codes of XU030 and does not include banking items. Since current assets alone do not represent balance sheet health, this ranking should be read as scale information, not a liquidity judgment.
Sectoral Comparisons
Carrying dip-buy signals, TOASO ( 152.29 billion TL), FROTO ( 238.89 billion TL) and ENKAI' also (248.56 billion TL) should be monitored for reaction trading along with the intra-sector scale difference. In retail, BIMAS remains at 88.38 billion TL against MGROS 152.41 billion TL; MGROS' the oversold condition (RSI 23.69) is a technical event and cannot be confirmed from the fundamental side since no profit margin data exists in the set. The difference in aviation is striking: THYAO 512.19 billion TL, PGSUS 91.42 billion TL; the fact that both codes' 60-day change hovers around -22% to -23% indicates that the exit pressure has a sectoral character independent of scale.
Relative Strength and Narrow-Based Tickers
TUPRS' with a current asset scale of 439.48 billion TL, relative strength (60-day +26.8%, r=0.31) is concentrated in the same code; the fundamental counterpart of the index's only AL signal is this scale information. Among small-base codes, GUBRF 48.99, ASTOR 47.91, PETKM 41.74, KRDMD 32.40 and TRALT 24.88 billion TL are included. ASTOR' the +9.95% reaction after a 60-day loss of -42.4%, combined with the narrow balance sheet scale, amplifies volatility risk; in this code, the condition of building the position gradually applies.
Limitations of the Data Set
Since the set consists only of current assets, current ratio, leverage, and profitability ratios cannot be calculated today; without net profit, sales, and equity data, giving a fundamental per-share rating would not be accurate. Since banking codes are not included in this set, the STRONG SELL signal under the VAKBN heading cannot be cross-validated with fundamental data and should be read within the technical framework. As a result, this section's output is limited to scale ranking and intra-sector relative position; if short-term liability data is shared, the ranking should be retested with the current ratio, otherwise dip-buy theses should be managed with technical signal weight.
6. Risk Management and Scenarios
Base Scenario: Compression in the 13,900–14,000 Band
XU030's staying flat at the 13,934.73 level with -0.10%, when read together with the scan where all 30 stocks gave SELL/STRONG SELL signals, shows that the breadth of stability is hidden. While USD/TRY 49.78 (+0.09%) trades calmly, the dollar-based return is -0.19%; in pricing, the exchange rate is neutral, the real risk is the narrowing of local appetite. The base scenario is the index compressing in the 13,900–14,000 band: 14,000 is resistance, 13,900 is the trigger zone. A close below 13,900 strengthens the probability of the sell-off deepening towards the 23 Ekim close of 13,658.96 and justifies reducing position weights.
Lower and Upper Scenarios
The lower scenario is a broad-based slide below 13.900 on a closing basis; VAKBN' carrying a STRONG SELL signal despite +2.32% shows that reactions in banking are being converted into selling. The upper scenario depends on an oversold bounce: MGROS' ta RSI 23.69 (ADX 48.94), GUBRF' te RSI 23.43 (ADX 51.54), SASA' da RSI 25.15 and THYAO' da RSI 28.19 (ADX 46.99) extremes carry short-term rebound capacity. However, ADX values staying above 45 indicate that these bounces will be technical reactions, not trend reversals. Without a decrease in the number of STRONG SELL signals above 14.000, a lasting recovery should not be expected; unless this condition forms, the upper scenario does not remain valid.
Protective Shields
ASTOR' daki +9.95% day; when read with the 60-day -42.4% and r=-0.94, it carries high volatility risk; WT=BOTTOM BUY signal given by TOASO, ENKAI, FROTO andASTOR' da gradual orders and small position discipline are essential. Cash/liquid weight should be kept high as a shield; THYAO (-% 2.03, ADX 46.99) and PGSUS ( RSI 26.72, ADX 44.75) with STRONG SELL, exposure in banks should be reduced. Relative strength leader TUPRS ( r=0.31, 60d +26.8%) can be held in a core position. On a close below 13.900, bottom-buy attempts are postponed and the cash buffer is enlarged; if breadth improves above 14.000, gradual steps can be normalized.
7. Recommended Model Portfolio
In the general signal layer, all 30 stocks in the scan give SELL/STRONG SELL, while in the WT layer only Tüpraş (company) andAselsan (company)' da BUY, Tofaş (company), Enka İnşaat (company), Ford Otosan (company) andAstor Energy' de BOTTOM BUY were triggered. The portfolio was set up neutrally-defensively with 39% position and 61% cash across these six names. Tüpraş (company), received the highest weight with the only positive relative strength (r=+0.31) and 60-day +26.8% performance; in the bottom-buy group, limited weights were selected based on channel position and r value. No positions are held in banking and aviation; the high cash buffer is the main tool of the defensive stance consistent with XU030's 0.10% squeeze at 13.934.73.
| Stock | Sector | Weight (%) | Transaction | Base Scenario | Optimistic Scenario | Invalidation Condition | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TUPRS – Tüpraş | Energy & Petrochemicals | 12% | Protect | At 361.5 TL, daily -0.82%; while the oscillator SELL (RSI 41.83) maintains short-term pressure, the horizontal-reaction path with the channel at the 19% position is the most likely route. | MACD's turning upward from the -7.99 level confirming the WT=BUY signal; r=+0.31 relative strength being preserved despite index weakness. | r's turn negative from 0.31, the channel position dropping below 19%, and the 60-day +26.8% gain being quickly given back. | In the scan, the only stock carrying both WT=BUY and positive relative strength (r=+0.31); 60-day +26.8% relative strength leader, overall signal NEUTRAL. |
| TOASO – Tofaş | Automotive | 7% | Gradual Buy | After the +5.56% reaction at 231.5 TL, the channel consolidating horizontally at 18%; short=WAIT, medium/long=SELL alignment indicates that the recovery is still of a reactive nature. | With the simultaneous BOTTOM BUY signal in FROTO, the spread of reactive buying in the automotive sector; r's turning upward from -0.49. | +% The 5.56-day gain being given back and the channel position retreating below 18%; the WT signal turning to SELL. | WT=BOTTOM BUY; the bottom group's most balanced relative strength (r=-0.49) and channel position near the bottom at 18%; weight limited due to medium/long SELL. |
| ENKAI – Enka İnşaat | Energy & Petrochemicals | 6% | Gradual Buy | After the bottom purchase with +2.12% at 77.05 TL, the channel moving horizontally at 33%; within the overall=SELL framework, a gradual progression of the reaction is expected. | r's upward turn from -0.64 and the channel position establishing above 33%; the slowing of the 60-day -10.2% decline. | Accelerating decline below the 77.05 TL reference and a return to the lower half of the channel; weakening of the BOTTOM BUY signal. | WT=BOTTOM BUY; the shallowest decline in the bottom group (60-day -10.2%) and channel at 33%; medium weight due to oscillator SELL (RSI 42.31). |
| ASELS – Aselsan | Defense | 5% | Gradual Buy | Horizontal compression with +1.72% at 340.75 TL and 5-day -0.58%; limited directional movement on the base path due to the conflict of WT=BUY with overall=SELL. | Strengthening of the buy side in oscillator votes (6 buy / 13 sell) and r's turn positive from -0.65; channel breakout above 43%. | The WT=BUY signal turning to SELL and the channel position rapidly retreating from 43%. | WT=BUY; however, overall=SELL, oscillator SELL, and r=-0.65 mean the signal lacks oscillator confirmation; weight kept at a symbolic level. |
| FROTO – Ford Otosan | Automotive | 5% | Gradual Buy | At 69.9 TL, +2.87% and +2.12% over 5 days; the gradual continuation of buying on reaction at the 46% channel, medium/long-term=SELL limits are maintained. | Together with TOASO, the bottom-buying wave in automotive is strengthening; StochK at 40.97 with oscillators turning upward. | Deepening of r=-0.79, sharp pullback below 69.9 TL, and rapid return to lower bands from channel 46%. | WT=BUY ON DIP; positive in the short term (day +2.87%) but r=-0.79 relative strength weakness weight limits. |
| ASTOR – Astor Enerji | Energy & Petrochemicals | 4% | Gradual Buy | Sharp reaction at 172.4 TL with +9.95% coming from 60-day -42.4% decline; continuation of high volatility at channel 67%, base pattern. | +% Confirmation with correction from r=-0.94 extreme of 9.95 daily and +3.92% 5-day momentum. | Reversal of daily gain and rapid deterioration of channel position from 67%; continuation of downward trend pressure with ADX 37.02. | WT=BUY ON DIP but with r=-0.94 the scan's weakest relative strength; lowest weight since reaction after 60 days -42.4% carries high risk. |
| CASH | — | 61% | Wait | XU030 squeeze at 13,934.73 with 0.10%; while 13,900–14,000 band is maintained, continuation of SELL/STRONG SELL table on a wide basis. | In case bounces from oversold extremes (GUBRF RSI 23.43; MGROS RSI 23.69; SASA RSI 25.15) spread to a wide base, gradual transfer of cash to portfolio. | Expansion of BUY side in general signals and index's permanent stay above 14,000 invalidates high cash stance. | No stock giving BUY signal in general layer; banking and aviation position is not held; high cash buffer is the main tool of defensive structure. |