Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of 28 October 2026, 01:30 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13,934.73; previous close 13,948.59 (daily -0.10%); dollar-based daily performance -0.28%. BIST 100 also trading flat: 11,151.03 close, daily change -0.01%. Surface calm does not mean a balanced market; while USD/TRY rose +0.18% from the previous 49.74 level to 49.83, the slight loss in TL terms deepened to -0.28% in dollar terms. The reason is the negative trajectory of the internal structure: SELL/STRONG SELL dominant in the majority of the 30 stocks; the index is held in place, with relative strength concentrated in energy and defensea narrow carrier group.

The transmission chain works through the exchange rate: while the +0.18% currency move amplifies pressure via cost and valuation channels in high exchange-rate-sensitivity groups (import-input industry, aviation), it provides relative protection in foreign-currency-revenue groups (refining, defense). The price confirms this divergence: TUPRS With +26.8% over 60 days, it is the relative strength leader, ASELS With -2.4% over 60 days, it represents the defense leg. Banking is the main carrier of internal weakness; AKBNK, YKBNK andGARAN in STRONG SELL, VAKBN' the +2.32% there is a weak bounce within a downtrend. Pressure persists in aviation: THYAO' with RSI at 28.2, PGSUS' at 26.7 is in the oversold zone.

Sharp moves at the stock level should be read within this framework: TOASO +% with 5.56 as the day's gainer, ASTOR +% with 9.95 as a sharp reaction; the trend is SELL in both, ASTOR' with a 60-day -42.4% and r=-0.94 profile showing these are not reversals but high-risk attempts. The main scenario is 13,800–14,000 band tightening within the band; a high-volume close below the band raises the risk of broad-based SELL signals being deeply transmitted to price, while a close above the band and calmer exchange rate feed the oversold reaction. Therefore, bottom signals alone should not be considered buy evidence; TUPRS andASELS' losing relative strength will be a warning that the band defense is invalidated.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Inflation holding at a monthly 1.84% and retreating to an annual 29.73% shows that price pressure has eased but remains at a still high level. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'nın 36.0% policy rate cut from 37.0% signals a tendency to increase liquidity in response to slowing inflation. This environment may ease pressure on banks' net interest margins and, with falling loan costs, could spark a modest revival in consumer loan demand; however, the decline in deposit rates from 43.04% to 43.795% may weaken savers' yield search and encourage a shift toward riskier assets. This condition could lose validity if the policy rate falls further or inflation reaches target faster than expected.

In the FX market, USD/TRY rising 0.09% to 49.78 TL, DXY up 0.34%, and euro/TRY down 0.62% reveal a slight weakening of the TL against foreign currencies. The Euro Area's consumer confidence slipping to –17.9 points and core inflation holding at 2.5% support weak regional demand and limited risk appetite. This situation raises cost pressure for energy‑petrochemical firms using FX‑denominated raw materials, while creating a competitive advantage for export‑oriented industrial and automotive companies; however, in an environment of persistent exchange-rate volatility, the financial risks of FX‑denominated borrowers may increase. A further rise in the exchange rate or an improvement in Euro Area economic indicators could reverse this relationship.

Domestic market sentiment is weakening as business and consumer confidence fall to 99.8 and 84.8 points respectively; this strengthens investors' risk-aversion tendency. Aselsan (company)' exceeding expectations in third-quarter net profit reinforces the perception of the defense sector as a defensive haven, while also potentially increasing selling pressure in non-defense sectors. Vice President Yılmaz's fund liquidation announcement and the return of funds through interim payments lead to liquidity outflows, supporting "strong sell" signals especially in bank and financial stocks. This news flow creates an environment where strong sell signals are still valid, but short-term buying opportunities may still exist in companies with expected profits such as Aselsan (company) ; the impact of the news may diminish if the expected fund outflow does not materialize or if Aselsan (company) profit is not sustainable.

In the global macro environment, the US inflation holding steady at a monthly 0.6% and annual 3.7%, the Fed keeping its policy rate at 4.0%, and the VIX falling 5.22% to 17.43 slightly revive risk appetite. However, a modest rise in US jobless claims to 4.2% million and consumer confidence retreating to 81.9% show that global risk perception remains fragile. In this context, sectors in the BIST 30 less affected by external factors such as energy and defense preserve the market's flat close (XU030 13,934.73, –0.10%), while fluctuations in FX and commodity prices still create a backdrop that can trigger equity volatility; an unexpected deterioration in US macro data or a rise in the VIX could reinforce the current "strong sell" bias.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Technical Analysis — Featured Stocks

TUPRS andASELS: Preservation of Relative Strength
Despite the index's flat close, the concentration of relative strength in energy and defense keeps TUPRS andASELS' as the two most technically critical stocks of the day. TUPRS, continues its leadership with +26.8% in 60-day return, while the limited daily pullback of -0.82% and oscillators voting SELL (RSI 41.83; CCI20 -86.72) point to short-term profit-taking pressure. In contrast, the WT signal being BUY and the channel position at 19% suggest the correction can be read as a breather rather than a trend breakdown. ASELS shows notable resilience compared to the index with a limited 60-day loss of -2.4%; the WT=BUY signal and RSI 44.89 confirm that the stock maintains its relative strength driven by the defense sector. However, in both stocks, the SELL-weighted oscillators suggest that current levels do not provide an early signal for new buying, and existing positions should be maintained.

TOASO andASTOR: Sustainability of Reaction Buying
The sharpest gains of the day occurred in automotive and energy equipment. TOASO %+ became the day's gainer with 5.56, while the WT signal being at BUY AT BOTTOM and RSI approaching the oversold zone at 37.22 indicate technical reaction potential in the stock. However, the 60-day loss of -15.1% shows that the medium and long-term trend is SELL; therefore, whether the current rise is a reversal or just a reaction will become clear as the price moves toward the upper band of the channel. ASTOR' The sharp +9.95% jump in it carries higher risk: it occurs on a ground where the trend is strongly downward, with a 60-day loss of -42.4% and a correlation coefficient of -0.94. Although RSI 40.37 and StochK 23.48 reflect an effort to exit the oversold zone, given that ADX 37.02 indicates the current downtrend is still strong, this jump is more likely to remain a short-term reaction within high volatility.

Banking and Aviation: Deepening Weakness
The STRONG SELL signals in banking stocks indicate that selling pressure continues across the sector.AKBNK, GARAN andYKBNK' In it, the oscillator votes being predominantly gathered in the STRONG SELL direction (for example, AKBNK' with 19 SELL votes and RSI 38.72) and the WT signals being SELL reveal that no technical support has yet formed for a short-term recovery. VAKBN' The daily +2.32% rise in it should be assessed as a weak bounce within the trend; since the WT signal is SELL, the overall signal is STRONG SELL, and RSI is at 39.60. On the aviation side, THYAO andPGSUS, with RSI 28.19 and 26.72 are in the oversold zone; however, the ADX values being at high levels such as 46.99 and 44.75, respectively, show that the downtrend retains its strength and that oversold conditions alone cannot be read as a reversal signal.

Stocks in Oversold Territory and the ADX Warning
The spread of oversold conditions across the market draws attention: MGROS RSI 23.69, GUBRF with RSI 23.43 and SASA with RSI 25.15 are in the deep oversold zone. However, the fact that WT signals are SELL in all of these stocks, and GUBRF' with ADX 51.54 and MGROS' with ADX 48.94 showing very high trend strength values, confirms that the current declines are occurring within a strong selling trend rather than due to momentum loss. EREGL' The channel position falling to -17% and RSI 30.60 with StochK 6.86 being in the bottom zone indicate that the stock is technically at a weak point; however, with ADX 18.33 showing low trend strength, this can be considered a limited sign that selling pressure may weaken at these levels. In this picture, oversold zones suggest that it may be too late to open new short positions, but it is also too early to recommend long positions before a trend reversal signal forms.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Data Coverage and Reading Method

Today's fundamental data set covers current asset sizes for 13 BIST 30 stocks; since equity, short-term liabilities, sales, and profit items are not included, current ratio, leverage, and profitability ratios cannot be calculated. AKBNK, YKBNK andGARAN Since the balance sheet items of bank stocks, including it, are not in the set, ratio-based assessment cannot be made on the banking side. Therefore, the section reads the current asset leg through scale and sectoral distribution and presents the findings as qualitative structural observations.

Current Asset Scale

KCHOL, With 3.615.15 billion TL, it has by far the largest current assets in the set; since this value is reported at the holding level, it should not be directly compared with individual companies. Among individual companies, the largest base is TUPRS' with 439.48 billion TL, followed by EKGYO' with 387.01 billion TL. ASELS 281.30, EREGL 269.67, ENKAI 248.56, FROTO 238.89, BIMAS 152.41, TOASO with 152.29 and AEFES with 149.31 billion TL form the middle tier. ASTOR 47.91, PETKM with 41.74 and KRDMD It is in the lower segment of the 32.40 billion TL band.

Structural and Sectoral Reading

EKGYO' Since the project stock and receivables of the current assets are expected to be concentrated, the size of 387.01 billion TL should not be read directly as cash strength.KRDMD' of 32.40 and PETKM' of 41.74 billion TL, the narrow bases may limit working capital flexibility; this picture is consistent with the chemical sector being flagged as the weak link in other parts of the report. ASELS' a base of 281.30 billion TL is consistent with the defensive character of the limited decline of -2.4% in 60 days. BIMAS' A follow of 152.41 billion TRY does not explain the weakness in retail; demand and margin items are not included in today's set.

Portfolio Perspective

Leading with +26.8% over 60 days TUPRS' The hedging recommendation is supported by the relative strength theme and a base of 439.48 billion TRY; since the sell signal in the oscillator points to profit-taking risk, the position should remain under monitoring. ASTOR' The narrow base of 47.91 billion TRY in ... does not create a fundamental source for the +9.95% jump after -42.4% over 60 days, so a minimal position approach should be maintained. TOASO' For the +5.56% move in ..., since there is no profit or sell item in the set, the distinction between reaction and reversal cannot be made with fundamental data today. When equity and short-term data arrive, readings should be revised on a ratio basis.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Base scenario, the index's in the 13,800–14,000 band in terms of maintaining its squeeze: XU030 fell 0.10% to 13.934.73 while the dollar-based loss widened to 0.28% and the internal structure continues its negative course. Signal breadth is weak; SELL/STRONG SELL votes dominate in the majority of the 30 stocks, and this base keeps the risk of renewed selling at the lower end of the band alive. GUBRF' te ADX 51.54, MGROS' ta 48.94, THYAO' da strong downtrends measured at 46.99 show that oversold readings alone do not reverse the trend. USD/TRY rising 0.18% to 49.83 eroded TL results in dollar terms; the acceleration in the exchange rate is the main trigger of the downside scenario.

The upside scenario relies on an oversold reaction: MGROS' ta RSI 23.69, GUBRF' te 23.43, THYAO' da 28.19; Tofaş (company), Astor Energy, Ford Otosan (company) andEnka İnşaat (company)' taki WT=DIP BUY signals support the rebound potential. Tofaş (company)' ın 5.56% and Astor Energy' nin 9.95% rise shows the reaction has begun)Skip, which could carry the index to the upper end of the band. However, early stay risk high: Astor Energy' with a 60-day loss of 42.4% and r=-0.94, EREGL' The -17% channel position indicates that these moves are not yet a trend reversal. The fact that the WT=AL signal remains only TUPRS andASELS' strengthens the possibility that the recovery will face selling without broadening.

The protective shield should be built in three steps: Increasing the cash/liquidity weight provides flexibility against the possibility of a dip to the lower band edge, and aligns with the cash increase in the model portfolio. The second step is reducing the banking weight; AKBNK, YKBNK, GARAN andISCTR In a STRONG SELL signal, VAKBN' a 2.32% increase remains limited as a weak intra-trend bounce with a channel 6% position. The third step is to hold TUPRS' (WT=AL, 60-day +26.8%) and ASELS' (WT=AL, 60-day -2.4%) which carry relative strength; in stocks giving bottom signals, positions should be kept minimal with tight stop-loss levels. Invalidation conditions are clear: daily closes below 13.800 deepen the defense, while the spread of WT=AL signals and persistence above 14.000 justify gradually converting cash into high relative strength stocks.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Today's data set shows that despite the index's flat close, the internal structure is negative and signal breadth remains very weak. In this picture, with STRONG SELL signals in 24 of the 30 stocks and only TUPRS andASELS' having a WT signal of AL, a selective and defensive approach is required rather than taking aggressive positions in the portfolio. The model portfolio below focuses on a limited number of stocks with high relative strength, relatively preserved trends, or rebound potential from oversold territory, while keeping a significant cash ratio in this high-uncertainty environment.