Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 29, 2026, at 07:22 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.960.89; previous close 13.934.73 (daily +0.19%); daily performance in dollar terms +0.12%. The index's TL-based return appears supported by a +0.06% currency move with USD/TRY at a calm 49.83 level; the dollar-based return tracking close to the TL return indicates the rise is not currency-driven but fueled by a limited recovery in local risk appetite. However, this recovery is not broad-based; the 0.19% gain in XU030 occurs over a marked divergence among sectors.

Transmission Mechanism: Shift Toward Defense and Energy, Unwinding in Banking

Today's price movements reveal that fund flow concentrated in defense and energy stocks, while selling pressure persisted in banking and holding companies. ASELS' recording the strongest rise with +5.21%, and ENKAI' trading in a wide band with a +1.82% return, show that these two sectors were the main drivers keeping the index in positive territory. On the other side, YKBNK' with -2.54%, AKBNK' its -2.02% and SAHOL' its -3.20% loss confirms that the unwinding in the banking and holding group limited the index's rise. The mechanism of this divergence can be read as limited risk appetite in TL assets directing toward companies with high foreign currency income and those directly benefiting from defense spending; while in banking, net interest margin pressure and in holdings, basic sell signals accelerating fund outflows.

Sector Impact and Stock-Level Implications

Technical indicators support this divergence: ASELS andENKAI' the presence of a WT=BUY signal indicates that buying in the defense and energy group is gaining momentum; while TAVHL' being the weakest stock at -3.87% and sitting in deep oversold territory with CCI -170.67 shows that pressure in the aviation sector continues. TRALT' with RSI at 29.9 in oversold territory creates potential for a technical rebound in this stock, yet the STRONG SELL signal across 26 stocks in the overall picture reveals that current buying remains selective and limited. In this picture, the index's sideways movement reflects a balance where selling pressure has not deepened but new buying appetite has not expanded either; risk is concentrated in the possibility of the index easing below the current band if banking selling spills over to other sectors.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Global risk appetite is being tested by the "higher for longer" expectation shaped by the Fed keeping its policy rate at 4.00% and US September PPI coming in above forecasts at 6.3% annually; in response, DXY retreating 0.19% to 102.12 and VIX falling 5.3% to 16.59 signal that market participants are pricing adverse scenarios while liquidity conditions have not yet tightened. Brent crude falling 3.16% back to 110.28 USD/barrel eases the current account risk premium with hopes of possible relief in imported energy costs, but European natural gas prices at a 4-year high above 100 euros and the World Bank's forecast of commodity price increases through 2027 keep alive the risk that energy input costs remain structurally high. In this environment, US retail sales growing 0.8% monthly in September and consumer confidence rising to 91.7 points support the soft landing scenario for the US economy, while European Industrial Production falling 0.5% monthly in August and the Consumer Confidence index weakening to -17.9 points suggest demand weakness in the eurozone could create second-round effects through export-oriented BIST companies.

In local macro data, September CPI at 1.84% monthly (29.73% annual) and PPI at 2.07% monthly (27.38% annual) indicate that the disinflation process continues, with real rates staying positive and the CBRT's cut of the policy rate to 36.00% at the October meeting being read as a normalization step consistent with the slowdown in credit growth (August yoy 36.32%) and M3 money supply (annual 28.65%). USD/TRY's calm movement at 49.83 with a marginal 0.10% change signals that despite the Central Bank's forex reserves falling to 62.15 billion USD in the week of October 16, the currency risk premium remains low, providing partial support to TL assets (XU030 0.13%, XU030 0.19%). However, the September budget deficit rising to 532.2 billion TL, the Consumer Confidence index falling to 84.8 points in October (previous 91.9), and the Capacity Utilization Rate staying flat at 74.5% indicate that domestic demand dynamics are weakening and tighter financial conditions are leaking into the real sector; this data set strengthens the perception of net interest margin pressure and non-performing loan risk in banking stocks (YKBNK, AKBNK) net interest margin pressure and non-performing loan risk perception.

In the news flow, Aselsan (company)' third-quarter net profit exceeding expectations and allocating 485 million USD for green/digital transformation, Aselsan (company) ( ASELS) and energy infrastructure (ENKAI, ASTOR) stocks' technical buy signals (WT=BUY, channel widths 46%-78%) are supported by fundamental data; while the forecast that diesel market tightness will extend into 2027 and volatility in oil prices prolong cost pressure in aviation (THYAO, PGSUS) and logistics sectors. Fitch's warnings that the global risk environment is deteriorating and US fiscal pressures will persist make foreign portfolio inflows selective; the household expectations remaining at 43.75% in the October Inflation Expectations Survey increases the data dependence of the CBRT's rate cut roadmap, creating a risk of punishing the market's early easing pricing.

This view is invalidated if USD/TRY breaks above the 50.00 psychological resistance and closes the week above that level, Brent rises above 115 USD, or the CBRT signals a rate cut beyond expectations (over 100 basis points) at its December meeting; conversely, if USD/TRY pulls back below 49.50 without the disinflation trend in inflation data breaking and VIX falls below 15, technical rebound buying could dominate in banking and holding stocks.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Technical Analysis — Featured Stocks

Despite widespread sell signals in the market, the positive divergence in defense and energy stocks stands out in today's session.ASELS, with a daily gain of 5.21%, it is the index's strongest stock; while the price trades at 358.50 TL, oscillators give BUY signals (buy=13/sell=6/neutral=9). RSI at 52.65 is in neutral territory, and although MACD at -6.81 has not yet turned positive, the channel width of 73% and WT=BUY signal show the current rise is technically supported. However, the overall signal being SELL and the 60-day return limited to 3.4% require this move to be assessed as a strong rebound rather than a trend reversal.

In the energy group, ENKAI andASTOR stands out. ENKAI trades at 78.45 TL with a daily gain of 1.82%, drawing attention with a 46% channel width and WT=BUY signal; however, RSI 46.16 and MACD -2.36 show that momentum is not yet strong. ASTOR is at 176.50 TL with a 2.38% daily return; despite moving in a wide band with a 78% channel, RSI 42.18 and MACD -23.25 indicate that this recovery following the sharp 60-day drop of -42.6% is fragile. In both stocks, the WT=BUY signal points to short-term rebound potential, but medium and long-term SELL signals remain intact.

Selling pressure in banking and aviation stocks is also clearly visible in technical indicators.TAVHL with a daily -3.87%, it shows the weakest performance while squeezed in a narrow band with a channel of 1%; CCI20 at -170.67 and RSI at 36.96 point to deep oversold territory. In banking,AKBNK (% 2.02 decline, CCI20 -166.03) and YKBNK (% 2.54 decline, CCI20 -125.09) is trading with a STRONG SELL signal; channel widths remaining narrow between 6-13% increases the likelihood that the search for direction continues in these stocks and that the current selling pressure may persist.

Stocks in the oversold zone carry technical rebound risk. TRALT RSI 29.9, EREGL RSI 29.97, THYAO RSI 27.94, PGSUS RSI 26.14, MGROS RSI 26.02 and SASA RSI 24.12 are in oversold conditions; at these levels, a basis may form for a possible reaction buying. However, GUBRF ( RSI 23.34, ADX 53.52) and MGROS ( ADX 50.25) in stocks with high ADX values, the strength of the current trend indicates that reaction moves may remain limited. TRMET despite its positive divergence with a daily increase of 1.95%, RSI 32.86 and channel 4% are trading close to the oversold zone; this situation shows that confirmation from momentum indicators is needed for the rise to go beyond a technical correction.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Liquidity and Short-Term Structure

Current asset items are concentrated in holding and strategic large-scale companies that make up the majority of index weights. Koç Holding (company) (KCHOL) has the broadest short-term funding base at 3.615.15 billion TL; Sabancı Holding (company) (SAHOL) follows with 2.790.07 billion TL. Among defense and industrial names, Aselsan (company) (ASELS) 281.30 billion TL, Ereğli Demir Çelik (company) (EREGL) 269.67 billion TL and Enka İnşaat (company) (ENKAI) It stands out with levels of 248.56 billion TRY. Turkish Airlines (THYAO) With 512.19 billion TL and Tüpraş (company) (TUPRS) 439.48 billion TRY trades at high levels reflecting the operational volume of the aviation and refining sectors. In contrast, Trakya Cam (TRALT) 24.88 billion TRY, Trakya Metal (TRMET) 25.54 billion TRY and Kardemir (company) (KRDMD) 32.40 billion TRY, the current asset base remains relatively narrower in such stocks.

Performance Divergence and Sectoral Details

The last 60-day return data shows a deep negative divergence within the index. Migros (company) (MGROS) 32.3%, Sasa Polyester (SASA) % with losses of 41.8 and Astor Energy (ASTOR) % 42.6 ranks among the hardest-hit stocks; ASTOR' the current asset size of 47.91 billion TRY may point to pressure on the balance sheet footprint of this price performance. Tüpraş (company) (TUPRS) with a 19.0% increase, it maintains its position as the name providing positive divergence among large-cap stocks; its strong short-term structure of 439.48 billion TRY may serve as material for this resilience. In the retail and chemical sub-sectors (BIMAS, PETKM, SASA) the general weakening reminds of risks of delayed consumption and margin pressure.

Evaluation Summary

In terms of balance sheet structure, liquidity concentration is observed in holdings and strategic state stakes (THYAO, TUPRS) while resource depth remains more limited in mid-small cap industrial and retail names. Astor andSasa (company) sharp price declines in low current asset stocks like Astor prove that market risk appetite is selective and balance sheet resilience comes to the forefront. In portfolio construction, names showing a combination of high current assets and positive momentum, such as Tüpraş (company) andAselsan (company) are prioritized; while in low-liquidity and deeply loss-making stocks, fundamental support expectations remain weak except for technical rebounds.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Risk Management and Scenarios

Downside Scenario and Protection Shield: In the weighted stocks of the banking index (YKBNK, AKBNK, GARAN, ISCTR, VAKBN) " STRONG SELL" signals and the narrowing of channel widths to the 6-21% band increase the risk of sectoral selling pressure spreading to the index. If XU030's high-volume closes below the 13.900 psychological support combine with USD/TRY testing the 50.00 resistance, the erosion of dollar-based returns could trigger foreign outflows and start a deep correction toward the 13.600-13.400 band. In this scenario, keeping the cash/liquidity share at 20%-25 levels for portfolio protection, and in long positions (especially ASELS, ENKAI, ASTOR) It is recommended to narrow the sideways trading range with profit-taking and trailing stop mechanisms. In banking and aviation (THYAO, PGSUS, TAVHL) positions, it would be appropriate to avoid new entries and reduce position sizes by 30-50% to lower the existing risk margin.

Upside Technical Rebound and Opportunity Window: For stocks where RSI has dropped below 30, MGROS (26.02), GUBRF (23.34), SASA (24.12), THYAO (27.94), PGSUS (26.14), EREGL ( 29.97) and TRALT ( 29.90), an oversold zone has formed; however, ADX values hovering in the 40-53 band and WaveTrend remaining in "SELL" or "BUY AT BOTTOM" position indicate that any rebound may be weak and short-lived. For a short-term recovery scenario, XU030 must break and hold above the 14.050 resistance with volume, and USD/TRY must fall below 49.70. If these conditions are met, a technical bounce may occur in stocks with narrow channel widths (18% and 4%, respectively) like TRALT andTRMET ( RSI 32.86) that have made an RSI bottom, while a more sustained buying could develop on the defense/energy axis led by ASELS ( RSI 52.65, WT=BUY, channel 73%) and ENKAI ( WT=BUY, channel 46%). The decision to take positions should be confirmed by the index closing above 14.050 and banking "STRONG SELL" signals turning into "SELL" or "WAIT".

Position Management and Stop Discipline: The current "Model Portfolio" Aselsan (company) ( ASELS) and energy (ENKAI, ASTOR) weighted structure should be maintained, but since ASTOR' 's 60-day performance of -42.6% and correlation of r=-0.95 bring high volatility risk, the position size should be limited to 5-10% of the portfolio and the stop-loss level should be kept tight at the last bottom (lower channel band). In banking, although CCI20 levels of -120/-130 in VAKBN andISCTR' create hopes for a technical rebound, the cash buffer should not be broken against the risk of "catching a falling knife" unless trend filters (WT=SELL, Overall=STRONG SELL) confirm a reversal. In summary; if the index closes below 13.900, the cash ratio should be raised to 30%, and if it holds above 14.050, risk appetite should be increased in a controlled manner with selective buys (ASELS, ENKAI, TRALT) should be carried out.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

In the current technical structure, while the general index gives a "SELL" signal, the relative strength seen in defense and energy sub-sectors and the "BUY AT BOTTOM / WT=BUY" signals in quality stocks entering oversold zones require the portfolio to focus on these names. Since ongoing selling pressure in banking and aviation increases systematic risk, preserving the cash position takes priority. The model portfolio below is built on a balance of signal strength, channel position, and divergence potential from the index based on the Pearson correlation coefficient (r).