Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of October 30, 2026, 12:09 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.699.33; previous close 13.960.89 (daily -1.87%); daily performance in dollar terms -2.10%. While the index's loss in TL terms is 1.87%, the widening of the dollar-based loss to 2.10% stems from USD/TRY rising 0.23% to 49.94 within the same day. This divergence shows that selling pressure is fueled not only by weakening local risk appetite but also by the exchange rate movement further eroding the return of TL assets for foreign investors. Following yesterday's limited rise of 0.19%, today's decline of 1.87% confirms that persistence above the 13.960.89 close could not be achieved and that sellers have regained control.

Transmission Mechanism: Currency Pressure and Risk Appetite

In yesterday's session, USD/TRY remaining nearly flat at 49.83 supported TL-based returns; today, however, the currency rising to 49.94 pushes the index's dollar-based loss above its TL-based loss. This situation reveals the two-way impact of exchange rate movements on the index: a deepening of the TL-based decline, by causing an even larger dollar-based loss, could accelerate foreign investors' selling decisions. Yesterday's report emphasized that selling pressure in banking and holdings continued while defense and energy stocks were relatively resilient; today's data shows this divergence is preserved but selling pressure across the index has intensified. The 1.87% decline in XU030 is deeper than the 1.71% loss in XU100, indicating that sales are primarily concentrated in large-cap, high-liquidity stocks within BIST 30.

Sectoral Impact and Risk Assessment

While the rise in the exchange rate creates additional pressure on aviation and industrial stocks with high imported input costs, it relatively protects defense and energy companies that earn foreign exchange revenue. In yesterday's report,ASELS andENKAI for which a WT=AL signal was given; in today's chart, the position of these two stocks in the defense and energy infrastructure sectors can provide a partial buffer against exchange rate-driven cost pressure. However, the index's retreat to the 13,699.33 level, if persistence below the previous close of 13,960.89 is maintained, increases the probability of testing the 13,500 support. Strong sell signals in banking and holding companies, as also mentioned in yesterday's report, are fueled by net interest margin pressure and credit risk concerns; the spread of selling pressure in these sectors to other sectors stands out as the main risk factor that could weaken the index's attempt to hold at current levels.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

In yesterday evening's data, USD/TRY rose 0.06% to 49.83, indicating continued currency pressure, while DXY fell 0.21% to 101.98, suggesting that the dollar's global weakness was not fully reflected in the local exchange rate. With the CBRT policy rate held at 36.0%, real interest rates remain in negative territory; this situation fuels the divergence of credit growth (annual 36.3% as of August data) from money supply growth (M3 annual 28.6%), keeping inflation risk alive through domestic demand. If USD/TRY permanently breaks the 50.00 psychological resistance, industrial margins (especially automotive and white goods) could narrow again in the second half through imported input costs.

In the Eurozone, September annual inflation rising to 3.8% and core inflation staying at 2.5% strengthens the likelihood of the ECB slowing its easing cycle; this was effective in EUR/TRY appreciating 0.63% to 55.79. While EU industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weakness on the European demand side, Turkey's September exports coming in at 25.97 billion dollars (estimate 25.98) shows resilience in external demand, yet the trade deficit widening to 5.16 billion dollars reminds of the fragility of the current account balance. Although EU growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter is positive, the economic sentiment index falling to 97.9 signals weakening demand in the coming periods.

In local macro data, October consumer confidence falling to 84.8 (previous 91.9) and business confidence to 99.8 (previous 102.0) indicates deteriorating consumer psychology in an environment where real wages lag behind inflation; retail sales rising 1.4% month-on-month in August remains limited due to early purchasing and inventory restocking effects. While tourism revenues reaching 15.9 billion dollars in the second quarter provides a buffer to the current account balance, tourist numbers declining -0.03% in the first nine months signals structural risk. In light of these data, net interest margin (NIM) pressure persists in the banking sector, while the currency advantage protects margins in export-oriented industry; however, unless real interest rates turn positive, the credit demand-driven growth model will remain fragile.

On the US side, the Fed keeping rates at 4.0% and the continued contraction of the central bank's balance sheet keep global liquidity conditions tight; the decline in US 10-year Treasury yields (around 4.80%) provides limited support to risk appetite. US consumer confidence jumping to 91.7 in October and durable goods orders rising 1.8% in September support the "soft landing" scenario for the US economy, while core PCE staying at 3.1% reminds that the inflation fight is not over. If US inflation data (especially CPI and PCE) cannot fall below 3.0% in the coming months, the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative could strengthen and pressure emerging market portfolio flows; this could drive foreign ownership in BIST 30 (particularly bank and holding-heavy) toward selling moves.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Technical Analysis — Featured Stocks

Despite the market-wide selling pressure, TAVHL, closed the day up 0.20%, being the most notable example of negative divergence from the index. However, this resilience is not confirmed by momentum indicators: RSI remains in weak territory at 37.47, while CCI20 at -190.62 points to oversold levels. Stochastic %K falling to 12.74 shows that the short-term recovery attempt has not yet turned into a reliable bottom formation. The WT signal being SELL and the channel percentage staying at 8% reveals that the stock needs strong buying volume to maintain its current resistance.

ASELS andENKAI, It stands out in the technical scan as one of the two stocks generating a WT=AL signal.ASELS' in drawing attention with a channel percentage of 56%, and in a more resilient position compared to most stocks in the index with RSI 47.48; however, MACD -6.25 and ADX 32.0 confirm that the current trend is still downward.ENKAI' on the other hand, it is relatively high with a channel percentage of 37%, RSI 42.76 and ADX 38.05; the WT=AL signal can be read as a sign of weakness in the stock's downtrend. Nevertheless, since the overall signal for both stocks is SELL, these signals alone are not sufficient grounds for a long position; if the price's position within the channel is not maintained, the signal may become invalid.

The expansion of the oversold zone brings technical rebound attempts to the agenda. GUBRF, With RSI 21.44 and ADX 55.53, it is at the most oversold level in the screen; Stochastic %K at 5.07 and CCI20 at -145.95 point to short-term rebound potential, yet the 60-day loss of 38.7% and the WT signal turning to BUY AT BOTTOM show that the downtrend has not yet been broken. Similarly, SASA (RSI 23.1), PGSUS ( RSI 24.5) and MGROS ( RSI 25.19) are also in the oversold zone; however, in all these stocks, the WT signal is at SELL or BUY AT BOTTOM levels. Since oversold conditions alone do not mean a bottom, at these levels one should wait for the price to stabilize within the channel and for volume support to form before buying.

The technical outlook for banking and holding stocks constitutes the area where market weakness is most intense. AKBNK (RSI 33.61), ISCTR ( RSI 35.4) and VAKBN ( RSI 34.96) give strong sell signals, while SAHOL ( RSI 36.13, CCI20 -183.46) and KCHOL ( RSI 39.28) paint a similar picture. The fact that all WT signals in this group are SELL reveals that technical indicators do not yet support a short-term recovery. TUPRS continues its relative resilience in the energy sector with a 60-day positive return of 11.8%; however, RSI 38.18 and CCI20 -98.93 show weakening momentum, while the decline of Stochastic %K to 17.85 indicates increasing short-term pressure.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Fundamental Analysis — Company Assessment

From the perspective of balance sheet sizes, the sectoral distribution of current assets indicates that liquidity buffers are differentiating.KCHOL, It has the largest balance sheet with current assets of 3,615.15 billion TL; this size can be evaluated as a reflection of the operational scale in the holding's financial and industrial subsidiaries.EKGYO' its 387.01 billion TL and TUPRS' its 439.48 billion TL current assets, respectively indicating the need for high working capital in the real estate development and energy sectors. THYAO' its 512.19 billion TL current assets, on the other hand, reveals the magnitude of the cash flow cycle in the aviation sector and the commercial receivables structure.

In terms of liquidity ratios, the absolute size of current assets is not a sufficient indicator on its own; however, among the companies in the data set BIMAS' its 152.41 billion TL and TOASO' its 152.29 billion TL current assets, when evaluated together with the fast inventory turnover rate in the retail and automotive sectors, gives the impression that operational liquidity is relatively strong. On the other hand KRDMD' with current assets of 32.40 billion TL, TRALT' with current assets of 24.88 billion TL, and TRMET' with current assets of 25.54 billion TL, suggesting that these companies' balance sheet scale remains below the index average and that they could be more fragile in a possible liquidity squeeze. SISE' its 151.30 billion TRY andTTKOM' with current assets of 109.44 billion TL points to a medium-scale liquidity position.

ASTOR' with current assets of 47.91 billion TL shows that the company's growth story has not yet reached a critical threshold on the balance sheet side. GUBRF' being in the oversold zone (RSI 21) is not directly supported by balance sheet data on the fundamental side; however, since current asset size is not included in the data set, a liquidity-based assessment cannot be made for this stock. Under the day's theme of strong sell signals in banking and holding companies, even KCHOL andEKGYO' with a large balance sheet scale appears unlikely to avoid the general selling pressure; this indicates that the impact of fundamental indicators on short-term pricing remains limited.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

The 1.87% decline in XU030 and the 2.10% loss in dollar terms show that the selling pressure stems from weakening local risk appetite, independent of currency movements. In the short-term downside scenario, if the index tests the 13.500 support level, there is a risk of deepening sell-offs; especially the strong sell signals in banking stocks (VAKBN, YKBNK, ISCTR, GARAN, AKBNK) and similar signals in holdings (KCHOL, SAHOL) stand out as the main triggers of this scenario. In this picture, to protect the portfolio, the cash weight should be increased, and existing long positions should be limited to WT=Aselsan (company) ( ASELS) and Enka İnşaat (company) ( ENKAI) stocks; since these two stocks, based on their channel positions, show relative resilience compared to the index.

In the upside scenario, the concentration of RSI values in the 20-35 range and the expansion of the oversold zone form the precondition for a technical rebound. Especially GUBRF' with an RSI level of 21.44 and TUPRS' its 60-day 11.8%'lik positive return indicates short-term rebound potential in these stocks; however, for this reaction to be lasting, WT signals need to turn to BUY and the index needs to close above the 13,699 level. In this scenario, the portfolio's protection shield, keeping the cash ratio high, and possible dip purchases being limited only to TAVHL andASELS like relatively resilient stocks will be limited; otherwise, opening new long positions in all 30 stocks with a general signal of SELL/STRONG SELL could negatively affect the portfolio if the downtrend continues.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Under current market conditions, the dominance of selling pressure and the dollar-based divergence of the BIST 30 index necessitate a cash-weighted, selective, and protective approach in the portfolio structure. In the technical screening data, stocks giving a Wave Trend (WT) indicator signal of "BUY" or "BUY AT BOTTOM", with channel position and Pearson correlation coefficient (r) indicating potential to move inversely to the index, have been prioritized. In the model portfolio below, considering the weakness in risk appetite, the cash position has been kept at 50.0%; in the remaining 50.0%, weighted positions are included from the defense, energy, chemical, and automotive sectors showing relative resilience, according to signal strength.