Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

Data and Signal Overview

As of November 1, 2026, Sunday, 07:33 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.419.68; previous close 13.960.89 (daily -3.88%); daily performance in USD terms -4.09%. BIST 100 (XU100) fell to 10.759.56 (daily -3.64%). USD/TRY closed at 49.94, up +0.23% after the previous close of 49.83. In the technical scan, all 30 stocks show SELL/STRONG SELL signals; a 100% sell-side distribution is a rare sign of simultaneous weakness. In the memory note regarding the previous day's close, the value 49.94 was recorded for the exchange rate, while in this report the 49.83 previous close value in the data block is taken as the basis.

Transmission Chain: From Exchange Rate Movement to Sector

The +0.23% rise in USD/TRY is the main transmission channel deepening the TL-based -3.88% loss to -4.09% in USD terms; the erosion of foreign currency-based returns should be read as the mechanism fueling risk aversion. At the sector layer, losses are concentrated on the automotive–chemical–metal axis: TOASO -8.2%, TRMET -% 10.0 and GUBRF -% 10.0 are among the day's sharpest closes. The exchange rate rise creates divergence between currency-supported stocks and domestic demand-focused stocks; in banking, the price-signal divergence persists, while GARAN -% 1.18 posted a relatively resilient close but maintains its STRONG SELL signal.

Stock Impact and Risk Layer

At the stock layer, there are four names with RSI below 25 — GUBRF 20.2, PGSUS 20.8, SASA 22.8, MGROS 23.1 — and MGROS 51.7 with THYAO 50.4 ADX values indicate that the downtrend's strength is preserved. TOASO, TTKOM, FROTO andMGROS' The WT "BUY AT DIP" signals point to early dip candidacy; without confirmation, a bounce may remain within the trend. ASELS andENKAI' The WT=BUY signal offers a relative strength point. The weekend news flow and the possibility of a gap opening on Monday's open amplify the contradiction between dip signals and a 100% sell-side distribution. In buy decisions, RSI recovery and WT BUY confirmation take priority.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

At Friday's close, USD/TRY gave a relatively calm impression at 49.94, yet the BIST 30 index lost -4.09% in dollar terms, showing that even currency-supported stocks (export-heavy industry, tourism) succumbed to broad selling pressure; this divergence signals that foreign portfolio outflows targeted index weights (banking, holding) and that domestic institutional buyers have not yet stepped in. According to CBRT data, end-September credit growth stood at 35.29% annually, and with the policy rate unchanged at 36%, real interest remains in negative territory; in this environment, although the credit channel has begun to narrow (down from 36.32% the previous month), real sector financing costs remain cheap relative to inflation expectations (September YoY 29.73% per TUIK data). However, October CPI monthly at 2.07% and CPI monthly at 1.84% indicate that the underlying inflation trend has not yet broken; this keeps alive the risk that rate cut bets (Economic Expectation Index fell from 101.3 to 97.3 in October) may be premature.

Weak external demand is pressuring industrial margins: August industrial production was -1.0% monthly and -1.86% annually; Eurozone August industrial production also fell below expectations at -0.5% monthly and -1.1% annually. EU growth remained weak in Q3 at 0.4% quarterly (1.3% annually); these data TOASO (-8.2%), TRMET (-10.0%), GUBRF (-% 10.0) explain the macro basis for the sharp declines in automotive, chemical, and metal stocks. Exports remained relatively resilient in September at $25.97 billion (estimate 25.98), but imports at $31.13 billion kept the current account deficit at -$5.16 billion; the Real Effective Exchange Rate index at 105.45 in September remains at appreciated levels on a 2003 basis, limiting exporter profitability.

The relative resilience of the banking index (around -36% levels GARAN) points less to expectations of net interest margin (NIM) protection and more to a "liquidity provider in selling" role stemming from foreign selling pressure focused on index weights (GARAN, AKBNK, ISCTR, YKBNK) ). As long as the policy rate is held at 36%, the deposit cost balance (September 43.04%) and loan pricing can be maintained; however, the central government budget balance falling to a deficit of -532.2 billion TRY in September (previous month +12.9 billion TRY) and M3 growth declining from 28.65% indicate tightening liquidity management. If the November inflation data (to be released on November 5) comes in above 36% monthly, rate cuts will be postponed and bank margins could widen for another quarter; otherwise, early easing expectations bring the risk of NIM compression.

Weekend news flow gives mixed signals: Minister Yumaklı's 41.5% increase in livestock production support and the 25.5 billion TRY investment plan for Lake Sapanca point to public spending accelerating toward year-end; meanwhile, lowering the electricity consumption limit to 3.000 kWh signals a managed demand bias that could constrain consumer spending. Although tourism revenues reached a record $25.5 billion in Q3, tourist numbers have grown only 0.4% since the start of the year; this shows the revenue increase is price-driven via the exchange rate rather than real volume. On the US side, October Manufacturing PMI at 55.3 (estimate 56.1) and Services PMI at 54.9 show continued expansion; despite weak NFP of 29k (estimate 90k), the Fed kept rates at 4.0%. With VIX up 12.9% to 19.42, global risk appetite will determine the BIST 30 direction at Monday's open; if DXY breaks below 101.88, a temporary relief in the TRY and a technical bounce in BIST (RSI <25 cluster: GUBRF 20.2, PGSUS 20.8, SASA 22.8, MGROS 23.1) could occur; however, ADX >45 (MGROS 51.7, THYAO 50.4) indicates trend strength still lies with sellers — bounce buying cannot go beyond "buying the dip in a downtrend" without trend confirmation (WT BUY signal + close above RSI 50).

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Friday's 3.88% loss on the index deepened oversold zones on a stock basis while creating a rare technical picture. The number of stocks with RSI below 25 rose to six: GUBRF (20.19), PGSUS (20.82), SASA (22.78), MGROS (23.05), THYAO ( 23.33) and TRALT ( 24.11). In this group, the high ADX values stand out; especially GUBRF' at 55.59, MGROS' at 51.69, THYAO' at 50.44, and PGSUS' at 47.76 indicate the downtrend is strong and current oversold conditions may not be sufficient for a short-term bounce. In these stocks, a possible bounce could be viewed as a selling opportunity if the trend continues; however, all StochK values being below 10 (GUBRF 4.24, MGROS 3.49, THYAO 7.91, PGSUS 7.12) produces an early signal for a short-term reversal.

Two stocks stand out by showing relative strength against the index: ASELS andENKAI. ASELS, With a 5-day return of 2.59%, it diverges positively despite the index's sharp decline, while its RSI stays in neutral territory at 47.94; its channel position at 58% is among the highest in the index. The WT signal being BUY and MACD not deepening at -6.15 suggest the stock is seeing accumulation despite the downtrend. ENKAI is the second strongest stock with a 5-day return of 4.29%; the WT=BUY signal and 35% channel position indicate that the currency-driven cost advantage is positively reflected in pricing. However, the overall signal for both stocks being SELL reminds us that this relative strength is not an absolute buy signal, but merely means less weakness compared to the index.

Four stocks generating a "BUY AT BOTTOM" signal on the WT indicator (TOASO, TTKOM, FROTO, MGROS) should be monitored as examples of early bottom-seeking. In this group, MGROS, despite being the hardest hit stock with a 60-day loss of 34.0%, its RSI is 23.05 and ADX is 51.69, placing it in both oversold and strong trend conditions; the WT's "BUY AT BOTTOM" could be the first sign that the decline is slowing, but confirmation requires price moving toward the upper channel band (15%) and RSI settling above 30. TOASO' also saw a daily loss of 8.17%, pulling RSI down to 28.99, while the channel position dropping to -3% and an r value of -0.60 indicate that downside momentum is fading but no base has formed yet. The "BUY AT BOTTOM" signals in these stocks only support gradual position-taking within the current SELL-oriented main trend.

The divergence between price and signals is evident in banking stocks. GARAN, held up relatively well compared to the index with a daily decline of 1.18%, and its RSI at 41.44 is higher than other banks; however, the oscillator vote shows only 1 BUY against 20 SELLs, giving a STRONG SELL signal. AKBNK' saw RSI fall to 31.26 while ADX at 37.17 maintains trend strength; VAKBN andISCTR' has RSI levels of 31.86 and 32.27 respectively, with CCI20 values of -158.9 and -185.01 pointing to oversold territory. All WT signals in banking being SELL indicates that oversold oscillator conditions are not yet sufficient for a short-term recovery, and price needs to test support levels.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Fundamental Analysis — Company Assessment

In Friday's sharp sell-off wave, key balance sheet metrics stand out as one of the first filters for stock-level divergence. High current assets provide a relative safety margin, especially in terms of operational liquidity and short-term debt repayment capacity. In this context, KCHOL ( 3.615.15 billion TRY) and SAHOL ( 2.790.07 billion TRY) have the largest current asset bases due to their holding structures; however, this size can serve as a buffer for diversifying sectoral risks arising from subsidiaries. THYAO' with 512.19 billion TRY and TUPRS' with 439.48 billion TRY in current assets are consistent with their operational scale, pointing to these two companies' capacity to manage the high volume in their cash conversion cycle.

The correlation between balance sheet size and price movement creates more pronounced fragility, especially in companies with small current asset bases. Companies with relatively low current assets such as TRMET ( 25.54 billion TRY) and TRALT ( 24.88 billion TRY) were among the hardest hit in the index on Friday (TRMET -% 10.0), showing that small balance sheets can be more volatile in pricing during liquidity stress periods. Similarly, GUBRF' its 48.99 billion TL current assets, when combined with margin pressure in the fertilizer sector, despite being in the index's most oversold region with RSI 20.2, have not yet produced an improvement signal on the fundamental side.

When viewed on a sectoral basis, a noticeable mismatch between the balance sheet sizes and price performances of automotive and chemical companies is striking. FROTO ( 238.89 billion TL) and TOASO ( despite having strong current asset structures with 152.29 billion TL, TOASO' its being among the index's sharpest decliners with -8.2% shows that fundamental strength could not prevent short-term selling pressure. PETKM ( 41.74 billion TL) and SASA ( while 42.00 billion TL) offers more limited protection against margin contraction in the chemical sector with more modest balance sheet sizes.

In non-banking, non-financial companies, current asset size can be evaluated as an indicator of operational scale. BIMAS ( 152.41 billion TL), AEFES ( 149.31 billion TL) and SISE ( while 151.30 billion TL) are in similar size groups, these companies' retail and domestic demand-focused structures can provide a relative advantage in terms of pricing power despite the cost pressure from exchange rate increases. However, the reflection of this advantage on stock prices has remained limited due to the 100% sell signal distribution across the index on Friday; fundamental indicators can only be used as a secondary filter upon confirmation of technical recovery signals.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Base Scenario: Limited Reaction Bounce

Oversold evidence is broad: Gübre Fabrikaları (company) (RSI 20.19), Pegasus (company) (20.82), Sasa Polyester (22.78), Migros (company) ( 23.05) and Turkish Airlines ( 23.33) below 25; CCI20 TAV Airports' at -209.36 in the deep negative region. This accumulation keeps the base scenario within the probability of a limited reaction bounce. However, ADX's Gübre Fabrikaları (company)' at 55.59, Migros (company)' at 51.69 and Turkish Airlines' at 50.44 with strong trend reading, the likelihood that the bounce remains a breather within the downtrend is weighed heavily. The confirmation criterion is clear: positions are not increased without simultaneously seeing RSI turn above 30 and the WT signal switch to BUY.

Bear Scenario: Trend Continuation and Opening Gap Risk

In the bear scenario, the selling wave deepens with the exchange rate and news flow; seeing SELL/STRONG SELL across all 30 stocks points to rare simultaneous weakness. Friday's -4.09% loss in dollar terms, while USD/TRY advanced +0.23% to 49.94, shows currency pressure persisting on TL assets. Since banking is not yet oversold (Garanti BBVA (bank) RSI 41.44, Yapı Kredi (bank) 40.55), the index carries downside material; the loss of the 13.500 support zone observed in previous sessions, with a close at 13.419.68, turns this band into a resistance risk for bounce attempts. Due to weekend news flow, there is a two-way gap risk at Monday's open; a high-volume drop below 13.419.68 and USD/TRY breaking the 50 psychological threshold would confirm this scenario.

Protective Shields and Application Discipline

The protective shield is to increase the cash/liquidity weight in line with the model portfolio's cash line and to tie new buying to RSI recovery and WT BUY confirmation. Aselsan (company) ( channel position 58%) and Enka İnşaat (company) ( channel position 35%) can be tracked with their relative strength; Astor Energy' the WT BUY signal conflicts with a 60-day -49.7% decline and an r=-0.95 profile, so positions should not be enlarged without confirmation. In Migros (company), Turkish Airlines andGübre Fabrikaları (company)' where ADX is above 50, averaging down should not be done; the "BUY AT BOTTOM" quartet (Tofaş (company), Turk Telekom, Ford Otosan (company), Migros (company)) should only be followed with small increments after confirmation. Limit orders and tight stop discipline are essential in the opening session; the base scenario is invalidated if the currency accelerates or there is an unconfirmed weak opening.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

At Friday's close, the index fell 3.88% to 13.419.68 and sell signals formed across all 30 stocks, making it necessary to prioritize cash weight in the portfolio; while ASELS andENKAI with WT "BUY" holds with relative strength, the quartet giving "BUY AT BOTTOM" signals (MGROS, TOASO, TTKOM, FROTO) should only be increased gradually with RSI recovery and signal confirmation.