Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of November 2, 2026, at 08:23 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.419.68; previous close 13.960.89 (daily -3.88%); daily performance in dollar terms -3.91%. While the index's loss in TRY terms is 3.88%, the fact that the loss in dollar terms is 3.91% shows that the flat movement in the USD/TRY rate (+0.03%) did not create a protective effect for foreign investors; on the contrary, the selling pressure stems entirely from local dynamics. XU100 falling 3.64%, less than XU030, indicates that selling was primarily concentrated in the index's heavyweight large-cap companies; this reflects portfolio managers' tendency to reduce positions in highly liquid stocks.

Transmission Mechanism: From Data to Sector and Stock Impact

The broadening of selling pressure is confirmed by the signal distribution in the technical scan: all stocks show SELL/STRONG SELL signals. This picture shows that the decline is not tied to a single sector or company news, but that a systemic risk perception dominates pricing. In banking stocks (VAKBN, YKBNK) strong selling, net interest margin pressure and credit risk concerns persist; in the metal group (TRMET, EREGL) losses reveal that weakness in global commodity prices is directly reflected in local stocks. WT=AL signals in defense and energy infrastructure stocks (ASELS, ENKAI) show that these two sectors partially diverge from the selling wave due to their foreign currency income and strategic position; however, these signals are not strong enough to reverse the selling pressure across the index.

Risk and Positioning Implications

Deepening oversold conditions increase the likelihood of a short-term technical rebound; RSI values falling to the 20-35 band (GUBRF 20.19; THYAO 23.33) supports this view. However, high values in ADX indicators (THYAO 50.44; GUBRF 55.59) show that the downtrend retains its strength, so interpreting current levels as a "bottom" would be premature. In this framework, the index's close at 13.419.68 indicates that if persistence below the previous day's 13.960.89 level is maintained, selling pressure may continue; in the opposite scenario, in oversold stocks (TOASO, MGROS) Limited reaction buying that WT=BOTTOM BUY signals could trigger may come to the agenda.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Today, the monthly inflation increase rate fell to 1.84%, slowing compared to the previous period, but it still remains high at 29.73% on an annual basis. This situation is supported by the policy rate staying at 36% and credit growth falling to 35.29%; the high interest cost restricts credit demand and may lead to a decline in companies' domestic demand and sales volumes. However, if inflation accelerates again or an unexpected cut in the policy rate occurs, the possibility of easing current demand pressure and improving profit margins disappears.

Today, the USD/TRY rate shows a slight depreciation at 49,936% (yesterday 49,942%), while the DXY index is -0.16% and EUR/TRY has fallen to 55,758%; this limited movement in the exchange rate keeps cost pressure limited in import-heavy sectors (e.g., metal producers and airlines). This assessment is confirmed by exchange rate data and DXY movements; also, the high ADX values (THYAO 50.44%, GUBRF % 55.59) indicate that the trend is still strong. A sudden drop of more than 1% in the exchange rate or a sharp increase in volatility could raise import costs, increasing pressure on sectors and invalidating the current low-volatility assumption.

Today, in global commodity news, copper prices rising after a three-week decline and Goldman Sachs raising its oil price forecasts due to supply risks stand out; these developments support the potential for BIST 30 companies that consume metals and energy (e.g., TRMET, EREGL) to gain a price advantage. Additionally, offering a new "Nefes Credit" facility of 50 billion TL to SMEs suggests that credit supply could revive slightly and may improve liquidity conditions for industrial companies. However, if commodity prices fall again or credit supply tightens, these positive expectations weaken and the technical oversold signals (RSI 20-35) of the relevant stocks could strengthen further.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Deepening Losses in the Oversold Zone: Today's selling pressure, as in the index overall, has also led RSI indicators on individual stocks to settle in oversold zones (20-35 range). One of the most extreme examples of this is Gübre Fabrikaları (company) ( GUBRF), which fell to 250.25 TL with a daily loss of -9.98%, while its RSI value of 20.19 marks one of the lowest levels on the chart. However, the ADX indicator being at one of the highest values at 55.59 shows that the downtrend retains its strength and that current oversold conditions have not yet produced sufficient signals for a base formation. Similarly, Turkish Airlines ( THYAO) while ADX at 50.44 confirms a strong trend, RSI at 23.33 and StochK at 7.91 indicate that the momentum of selling pressure continues. The high ADX values observed in these two stocks confirm that price movements are in a directional decline rather than being squeezed in a horizontal band.

WT=BUY Signals and Short-Term Rebound Potential: In a table where SELL or STRONG SELL signals dominate across all stocks, stocks with Woodie Trading (WT) signals of BUY or BOTTOM BUY stand out in terms of short-term rebound attempts. Astor Energy ( ASTOR), despite being one of the hardest-hit stocks with a daily loss of -9.97%, produces a WT=BUY signal; however, the 60-day loss reaching -49.7% and the r value being at -0.95 with very strong negative correlation require this signal to be read not as a trend reversal yet, but as a technical rebound potential that may occur after deep value loss. Tofaş (company) ( TOASO) on the other hand, trades in the oversold zone (RSI 28.99) with a WT=BOTTOM BUY signal; in this stock with a daily loss of -8.17%, the channel position at -3% points to near the lower band. Enka İnşaat (company) ( ENKAI) andAselsan (company) ( ASELS) Other stocks generating WT=AL signals stand out; ASELS' the RSI value remaining relatively high at 47.94 compared to the index indicates that selling pressure on this stock is more limited.

Strong Sell Signals in Banking and Metal Sectors: While all banking stocks carry a STRONG SELL signal, CCI20 indicators point to the oversold zone. Yapı Kredi (bank) ( YKBNK) The CCI20 value draws attention at -177.29, while Akbank (company) ( AKBNK) - 185.45 and İş Bankası (company) ( ISCTR) - 185.01 are under selling pressure of similar depth. In this group, ADX values fluctuating in the 20-37 band show that trend strength is weaker compared to the metal group, so part of the price movement may stem from high volatility. In the metal group, TR Anadolu Metal (company) ( TRMET) experienced a daily loss of -10.00%, close to the limit price, while Ereğli Demir Çelik (company) ( EREGL) %- fell by 5.00 to 29.66 TL, bringing its 60-day loss to -28.6%. In both stocks, RSI values in the 26-27 band indicate that oversold conditions persist but no bottom confirmation has yet formed.

Approaching Resistance and Support Levels: Channel positions summarize where stocks stand relative to technical levels. Migros (company) ( MGROS) is at the 15% channel level with RSI at 23.05 in oversold territory; a 60-day loss of -34.0% shows the stock has been in a downtrend for a long time, and the current price corresponds to the middle zones of the channel. Pegasus (company) ( PGSUS) trades near the lower band with a channel of -11%, while RSI at 20.82 and ADX at 47.76 confirm that the decline continues in terms of both momentum and trend strength. Sabancı Holding (company) ( SAHOL) With a CCI20 value of -206.48, it produces one of the lowest oscillator readings in the index; while this level increases the likelihood of a short-term technical rebound, the strong downtrend indicated by ADX at 38.82 suggests such a rebound may remain limited. In the overall picture, the spread of RSI values into the 20-35 band and the elevated ADX readings reveal how broad-based the selling pressure is; however, the short-term rebound potential in stocks generating a WT=BUY signal suggests oversold conditions may continue to cause price fluctuations for a while longer.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Fundamental Analysis — Company Assessment

In terms of balance sheet size, holding companies show a clear divergence. KCHOL' has the highest current assets in the dataset at 3.615.15 billion TRY, while SAHOL ranks second with 2.790.07 billion TRY. The combined current assets of these two holdings are well above the total of all other companies in the dataset; this indicates that balance sheet scale is concentrated in holdings and that these companies have relatively large liquidity buffers. However, SAHOL' standing out with non-bank holding fragility in the index's daily decline of 3.88% reveals that a large balance sheet does not directly provide protection against selling pressure.

In the retail and automotive sectors, current asset sizes provide insight into companies' operational scale. BIMAS has the highest current assets in retail with 152.41 billion TRY, followed by MGROS with 88.38 billion TRY; however, MGROS' s 60-day loss of 34.0% shows that balance sheet size is not reflected in stock performance. On the automotive side, FROTO draws attention with 238.89 billion TRY, while TOASO' s current assets are not included in the dataset; this limits direct comparison of the two companies' balance sheet structures. EKGYO' s current assets of 387.01 billion TRY reflect the inventory and trade receivables-heavy balance sheet structure in the real estate sector.

In the industrial and metal main sector, EREGL has the largest current assets with 269.67 billion TRY, while KRDMD shows a relatively small balance sheet with 32.40 billion TRY. GUBRF' s current assets of 48.99 billion TRY reveal its scale in the fertilizer sector; the stock's daily decline of 9.98% and RSI at 20.19 in oversold territory indicate that fundamental balance sheet size does not support short-term price action. ENKAI' s current assets of 248.56 billion TRY point to the size of the cash flow cycle in construction and infrastructure works, while ASTOR' s current assets of 47.91 billion TRY indicate a scale below the sector average.

Liquidity and scale indicators confirm that today's selling pressure is independent of balance sheet size. Since the dataset does not include ratios such as profitability, leverage, or current ratio, no quantitative assessment can be made regarding companies' profit margins or financial leverage levels. As the available data is limited solely to current asset sizes, rather than generating commentary on balance sheet quality and profitability dynamics, it would be more accurate to say these figures reflect sectoral concentration and scale differences.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Risk Management and Scenarios

In the table where XU030 retreated to 13.419.68 and the dollar-based loss (-3.91%) exceeded the TL return, the short-term main scenario is toward the persistence of selling pressure. Although oversold conditions (RSI values concentrated in the 20-35 band) increase the probability of a technical rebound, the strong trend values in the ADX indicators (THYAO 50.44; GUBRF 55.59; MGROS 51.69) show that the downward momentum is maintained. Therefore, in the downside scenario, if the 13.419.68 support is broken, there is a risk of deepening selling; in the upside scenario, confirmation of WT=DİPTE AL signals in oversold stocks (TOASO, FROTO, MGROS) could trigger a short-term rebound wave. However, for this rebound to evolve into a lasting trend reversal, ADX values need to weaken and prices need to move toward the upper channel bands with volume.

Keeping a high cash/liquidity weight as a protective shield for the portfolio continues to be the priority strategy. The cash ratio in the model portfolio should be maintained consistently with the recommendation in this section; new long position openings should be limited only to exceptional stocks giving WT=AL signals such as ASELS andENKAI must be limited to exceptional shares such as. Banking (VAKBN, YKBNK, ISCTR) and metal (TRMET, EREGL) stocks indicate that positions in these sectors should be reduced. In case downside risks materialize, keeping stop-loss levels tight, and in the upside scenario, entering oversold stocks cautiously and gradually, will offer a more measured approach to preserving the return-risk balance.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

In the current data set, a WT=AL signal exists only for ASELS andENKAI all other stocks have WT=SAT or GÜÇLÜ SAT direction. Therefore, the model portfolio has been constructed considering signal strength and channel position, and predominantly includes a cash position. ASELS, While standing relatively resilient with a 5-day return of +2.59% and RSI of 47.94; ENKAI, stands out positively with a channel position of 35% and a 5-day return of +4.29%. Although oversold conditions in other stocks (e.g., GUBRF RSI 20.19, THYAO RSI 23.33) carry technical rebound potential, the high ADX values (GUBRF 55.59; THYAO 50.44) indicate the trend strength is maintained, so these stocks have not been added to the portfolio.