Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of September 29, 2026, 08:10 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 15.648.91; previous close 15.946.95 (daily %‑1.87); daily performance in dollar terms %‑1.90. A deeper %‑2.38 decline on XU100 suggests that selling pressure hit mid/small-cap stocks more severely compared to blue-chips; USD/TRY remaining nearly flat at 48.99 (+0.03%) confirms that TL-based losses weren't cushioned by currency movements, indicating foreign portfolio value has actually eroded. Yesterday's index testing the 15.900 psychological support level closed below it today, breaking the trend structure; the widespread nature of high-volume sales indicates risk appetite has completely closed and buyers have withdrawn.

The transmission mechanism follows this chain: sustained high global interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions are triggering foreign capital withdrawal from emerging markets; the currency's flat trajectory is insufficient to cushion this exit in TL terms. In this environment, banking (AKBNK, GARAN, YKBNK) and holding (SAHOL) weighted index core is being sold on interest margin pressure and credit cost concerns. As the plan emphasized, defense/aviation (ASELS, THYAO, PGSUS) stocks are also under selling pressure via fuel-cost and demand uncertainty; retail (BIMAS, MGROS) and steel (KRDMD, EREGL) show relative resistance, deepening sectoral differentiation.

Technical damage on a stock-by-stock basis is broad-based: oscillators are in the selling zone except for KRDMD and BIMAS, with RSI falling below 30 in SASA, ASTOR and DSTKF stocks signaling oversold. While a technical rebound (rally) is possible from these levels, the main scenario highlights a rapid decline towards the 15.000 psychological level if 15,650 support breaks. The strong sell signal in GUBRF (‑3.44%) and weak oscillators confirm the decline is not selective but systematic; increasing cash position and reducing position size strategy remains the most consistent risk management tool in the current transmission chain.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

3) Macro Outlook and News Flow

September 28 closing data show that the selling pressure on BIST 30 has a macroeconomic counterpart. The rising trend in US 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar index (DXY) remaining flat at 101.14 are increasing pressure on emerging market assets. US inflation remaining at 3.4% annually above target and interest rate projections being revised upward are limiting global risk appetite; the 4% increase in the VIX index also confirms this picture. USD/TRY remaining flat at 48.98 in this environment suggests that TL asset value loss is independent of exchange rate movements, stemming from domestic dynamics.

Domestic inflation outlook continues to be decisive for BIST 30 companies' margin dynamics. September inflation came in at 1.84% monthly and 27.95% annually, while the 1.84% monthly increase in PPI indicates ongoing cost-side pressure. Although the CBRT kept its policy rate stable at 37.0%, consumer credit interest rising to 63.74% and credit growth falling to 2.3% annually show the cooling in domestic demand continuing through financial conditions. This picture creates downside risks for sales volumes of retail and industrial companies particularly sensitive to domestic demand, while high interest environment is pressuring valuations of highly leveraged companies due to increased financing costs.

The SPK's criminal complaint against 37 individuals within the scope of the fund investigation stands out as a factor negatively affecting investors' risk perception in the news flow. This development, which could increase volatility especially in high-volume stocks, could also damage investor confidence. CBRT President Karahan's presentation to be held at the Parliament on October 6 will be closely watched for possible new signals on monetary policy. In the macro data set, the decline of CBRT's foreign exchange reserves to 62,808 billion dollars indicates a slowdown in reserve accumulation; this situation keeps alive questions about exchange rate stability.

The discrepancy between the macro view and technical signals is particularly noteworthy in today's report. The buy signals for KRDMD and BIMAS can be evaluated as a positive divergence in an environment where macro data generally paints a weak picture; however, the sustainability of these signals depends on how much the slowdown in domestic demand will reflect in these companies' sales performance. The partial recovery signal in VAKBN within banking, although supported by the decline in deposit interest rates to 2.3%, presents a view that should be approached cautiously due to the slowdown in credit growth and the absence of clear data on non-performing loans. Even in stocks where technical signals are positive, it should be considered that these signals could quickly become invalid if macro conditions deteriorate.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

The breadth of selling pressure in BIST 30 today is clearly reflected in technical indicators. According to scan results, only two stocks in the index can generate positive signals: KRDMD andBIMAS. Despite a limited daily increase of 0.43%, KRDMD's 21.7% return over 60 days and buy signals across all short, medium, and long-term periods position it as the most resilient stock in the index. On the oscillator side, the stock, which has received a STRONG BUY confirmation, shows RSI at 58.55, MACD at 0.68, and CCI20 at 102.68 in positive territory; while StochK reaching 81.15 indicates approaching overbought territory in the short term, it can be said that the current momentum is maintained. BIMAS, with a daily increase of 0.41% and a 60-day return of 20.2%, shows similar resilience; it manages to stay in the buy zone with RSI at 55.78 and MACD at 6.08. However, the SELL signal given by the Williams %R indicator for BIMAS can be evaluated as an early warning that the rise in the retail stock may lose momentum.

The banking sector picture is mixed: VAKBN, stands out as a rare positive diverging stock in the sector with its daily flat movement of 0.06% and buy confirmation in oscillators (buy=11/sell=7). With RSI at 51.59 just above the neutral zone and MACD at 0.42 in positive territory; however, the SELL signal of Williams %R and the overall scan note being SELL show that this recovery is not yet a reliable trend reversal. The situation is markedly weak in other banks: GARAN, AKBNK, YKBNK andISCTR in the STRONG SELL zone of oscillators; especially GARAN having zero buy signals (buy=0/sell=18) and CCI20 falling to -86.78 confirms that selling pressure in banking is broad-based. In this picture, VAKBN's relative resistance can be read as a divergence from the sector average, but it is insufficient alone to create recovery expectations in the sector.

Overbought areas are attracting attention: SASA (RSI 28.04), DSTKF ( with RSI at 22.84) and ASTOR ( with RSI at 31.59) indicate technically overbought conditions. However, these indicators should not be interpreted as buy signals alone; as in all three stocks, MACD is in deep negative territory (ASTOR -17.01, DSTKF -252.59) and StochK is at very low levels (SASA 2.61, DSTKF 0.0). This situation shows that the downtrend continues without momentum loss, meaning that overbought zones are not sufficient conditions for a technical rebound. Particularly SASA's 9.62% and ASTOR's 9.97% daily losses demonstrate that selling pressure is still severe.

The weakness in defense and aviation stocks is also clearly reflected in technical indicators. THYAO (RSI 43.14), PGSUS ( with RSI 39.43) and ASELS ( with RSI 44.15) are in the STRONG SELL zone of oscillators; especially CCI20 for PGSUS falling to -154.29 and MACD for ASELS decreasing to -3.48 indicate that selling pressure in these stocks has gained momentum. The correlation value of r=-0.90 in THYAO shows that price movements are in high harmony with the trend direction and that the current decline is progressing on technically solid ground. In this picture, while the daily increase of MGROS’ at 1.62% and the channel position reaching 78% stands out as short-term resistance, the 60-day loss of -15.9% and medium/long-term SELL signals suggest that this rise may be a technical reaction rather than a permanent trend reversal.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

5) Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

In terms of balance sheet sizes, holding companies stand out with their financial structures. KCHOL's 3.615.15 billion TL and SAHOL's 2.790.07 billion TL in current assets show that the liquidity pool in the sector is concentrated in these two companies. The current assets of these two holdings are more than the sum of all other companies in the index; this situation indicates that their balance sheet flexibility is relatively higher in case of a market contraction. On the other hand, EKGYO's 387.01 billion TL in current assets draws attention with its structure of inventories and commercial receivables in the real estate sector, while THYAO's 512.19 billion TL in current assets reflects the high working capital requirement of aviation operations.

Based on liquidity ratios, as much as the absolute size of current assets, the sector business model is also decisive. On the retail side, BIMAS's 152.41 billion TL and MGROS's 88.38 billion TL in current assets, when evaluated together with the fast-moving consumer goods inventory turnover rate, can be said to have relatively short cash conversion cycles. In contrast, KRDMD's 32.40 billion TL in current assets, despite the cyclical nature of the steel industry, points to a more compact balance sheet structure; this situation can be evaluated as one of the factors supporting the resistance the company shows on a daily basis. In defense and aviation, ASELS's 248.77 billion TL in current assets contains high receivables and inventory items required by the business model based on long-term contracts.

In capital-intensive sectors, it is necessary to distinguish between the relationship between balance sheet size and profitability. FROTO's 238.89 billion TL and TOASO's 152.29 billion TL in current assets reveal the importance of supply chain financing in the automotive industry; while EREGL's 265.47 billion TL in current assets can be read as the reflection of high fixed capital investments in iron and steel on working capital. GUBRF's 48.99 billion TL in current assets shows that the liquidity buffer remains limited under input cost pressure in the fertilizer sector; when evaluated together with the strong sell signal for the stock, this means that the balance sheet structure does not provide additional support in the short term. SASA's 42.00 billion TL and PETKM's 41.74 billion TL in current assets, despite their raw material-intensive structure in petrochemical and fiber production, show a more modest liquidity profile compared to sector averages.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

As of September 29, 2026, broad-based selling pressure is observed in BIST 30, with the index falling to 15.648.91. The short-term main scenario is for the decline to continue; however, the presence of stocks that have entered overbought zones brings the risk of a technical rebound. Oscillators being in the overbought zone for stocks like SASA (RSI 28.04), DSTKF (RSI 22.84), and ASTOR (RSI 31.59) indicates that selling pressure in these items could lose momentum. However, the overall signals for these stocks being STRONG SELL shows that any potential rebound should not be interpreted as a permanent trend reversal. At the index level, if sustainability below 15.650 support is maintained, there is a possibility that selling pressure could deepen; a return above this level could provide short-term relief.

In terms of portfolio protection shields, increasing the cash position stands out as the primary defensive tool in the current picture. Reducing positions in stocks like GUBRF, SASA, and ASTOR that give STRONG SELL signals would reduce the portfolio's sensitivity to the general weakness in the index. Maintaining current positions in stocks like KRDMD and BIMAS that give BUY signals and are relatively resilient, but not adding to these positions, would be a more moderate approach to maintaining risk-return balance. Considering that the horizontal movement in USD/TRY (48.99) does not limit value loss in TL assets, the sensitivity of companies with high foreign currency debt to exchange rate movements should continue to be monitored. In a possible downside scenario, the breaking of the 15.650 support could cause sales to accelerate; while a technical rebound that could occur in overbought zone stocks could prepare the ground for a short-term rebound in the index. Therefore, maintaining a high cash ratio in the portfolio will provide flexibility against both scenarios.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

In today's dataset, only a buy signal is confirmed for KRDMD and BIMAS, while VAKBN shows a partial recovery based on oscillators but is tracked with an overall SELL signal. In this table, by evaluating signal strength, Pearson correlation coefficient, and channel position together, it is anticipated that positions will only be opened in the two stocks that give STRONG BUY and BUY signals; the remaining weight will be held in cash against the possibility of the downtrend continuing. It is not recommended to carry positions in stocks like GUBRF, SASA, and ASTOR that give STRONG SELL signals, as this would negatively affect the return-risk balance in the current dataset.