Daily Market Report

1. Day's Data (summary)

2. Market Outlook and Transmission Mechanism

As of Monday, October 26, 2026, at 07:29 — BIST 30 (XU030) last close 13.874.24; previous close 14.010.86 (daily -0.98%); in dollar terms, daily performance -1.01%. The index closing below the 14.000 psychological support level and the dollar-based loss (-1.01%) exceeding the TL-based loss (-0.98%) indicates that selling pressure is driven more by narrowing local risk appetite and foreign portfolio outflows rather than currency movements. While USD/TRY remains relatively flat at 49.75 (daily +0.04%), the decline in XU030 suggests that currency protection is insufficient to support the real return of TL assets, and instead accelerates erosion in dollar terms.

The transmission mechanism indicates that broad-based "Strong Buy" signals point to the index seeking a technical consolidation or a deeper correction at the 13.874 level. Tüpraş (company) ( TUPRS) draws cash flow with a 60-day positive divergence and a daily positive close; while in holdings SAHOL' un shows a single resistance with the "WT=AL" signal, and in banking VAKBN' un is observed to break its channel support and post the sharpest decline. Aselsan (company) ( ASELS) offers partial resistance to the selling wave by taking a "WT=AL" signal, while iron-steel (EREGL) Daily 9.97% limit drop and RSI at 28.7 entering oversold territory triggers a panic selling/technical rebound dilemma.

Stock-specific transfer; TUPRS andSAHOL' The positive divergence there could be "smart money" accumulation or protective selling, VAKBN The breakdown is considered to be the technical reflection of the banking sector's fundamental weakness driven by high deposit costs and slowing credit growth. AKBNK andTCELL' Although oscillator oversold readings such as CCI20 falling below -300 there strengthen the possibility of a short-term technical rebound, the main trend remains in the "Sell" direction, and if the 13,874 support is broken, a decline toward the 13,400-13,200 band appears to be the dominant risk. Therefore, new long positions TUPRS/SAHOL with the exception, the strategy of maintaining a cash-heavy stance stands out.

3. Macro Outlook and News Flow

Although the Central Bank's decision dated October 22 to lower the policy rate to 36.0 is consistent with the disinflation trend seen in September CPI data (annual 29.73%, monthly 1.84%), the narrowing of the real interest margin brings the risk of premature easing in credit pricing. The September central government budget deficit of 532.2 billion TL and credit growth remaining below the policy rate at an annual 36.3% indicate that financial conditions are not yet tight enough; the slowdown on the demand side (Consumer Confidence falling to 84.8 and Business Confidence to 99.8 in October) may deepen through the credit channel. This picture strengthens the scenario that net interest margin (NIM) pressure in the banking index could carry into the coming quarters and that the improving trend in non-performing loan ratios could reverse; even if technical signals say "Buy" (e.g., SAHOL WT signal), the risk/reward of long positions remains weak until margin confirmation arrives.

In FX markets, USD/TRY remaining almost flat at 49.71 (daily -0.03%) and DXY holding at 101.80 provides a temporary breather for currency-driven cost pressure on industrial companies (especially import-heavy automotive, white goods, and chemicals). Although the August current account balance of 4.05 billion USD surplus and tourism revenues at 15.9 billion USD in the second quarter show that current account dynamics remain supportive, the decline in TCMB gross reserves to 62.1 billion USD and the retreat of Brent oil from 111.70 USD/barrel create uncertainty about how long the relief in the energy import bill can sustain the current account surplus. If DXY closes above 102.50 and Brent tests 115 USD, currency pressure could again erode dollar-based returns of TL assets (XU030 at 13.874).

The global liquidity environment shifted to a "risk-off" tone as the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5,315%, the 5-year to 4,805%, and VIX climbed to 19.45. September US retail sales rising 0.8% monthly, industrial production up 0.7%, and core inflation staying at 2.6% revive expectations that the Fed may slow its rate cut pace; this increases selective selling pressure on emerging market portfolio inflows (EPFR data should be monitored). In the Eurozone, industrial production contracting -0.5% monthly and -1.1% annually in August, and Germany's locomotive still failing to pull, raise demand-side risks for exporting BIST 30 companies (especially automotive, machinery, chemicals). Technical oversold signals (RSI <30, CCI20 <-300) could trigger a rebound buying, but this external squeeze in the macro function keeps the rebound's durability limited.

In local demand indicators, the contraction in industrial production at -1.0% monthly and -1.86% annually in August, and retail sales still remaining weak in real terms (annual growth of 10.1% implying negative real growth relative to inflation), indicate that the emphasis on sales volume in consumption-focused stocks (GIDA, TUKETIM, OTO) makes margin improvement difficult. Although the rise in the domestic resource share in electricity to 4,053 (September data) is positive for the long-term current account balance and energy costs, in the short term, electricity price regulation and weak demand are putting pressure on the operational profitability of energy-intensive industry (EREGL, ISCTR, PETKM) In this environment, maintaining a cash position and only TUPRS ( daily/60-day positive divergence) with SAHOL ( taking selective positions in names with proven structural resilience, such as holding structure and WT BUY signal, remains the most consistent strategy in terms of portfolio management.

4. Technical Analysis — Highlighted Stocks

Technical Analysis — Featured Stocks

TUPRS, Closing at 360.75 TL with a daily rise of 2.41%, it stands out as the only energy stock positively diverging in a market with intense selling pressure. Its 60-day change of 24.4% is well above the sharp losses across the index; however, the short-term signal being SELL and the WT signal being SELL indicate that the current rise is a test at the resistance zone rather than a trend reversal. RSI staying neutral at 40.98 and CCI20 at -140.65 reveal that the stock has not yet entered oversold territory, so the sustainability of the upward move without volume support is limited at current pricing. The channel position at 14% indicates the price is trading around the middle band; therefore, if persistence above 360 TL is not achieved, the short-term SELL signal may come to the fore again.

SAHOL, It stands out as the only holding stock with a WT signal of BUY; it experiences a limited loss of -0.63% daily while its 60-day change remains positive at 3.0%. On the oscillator side, RSI being neutral at 48.1, StochK staying high at 69.08, and ADX giving a strong trend signal at 35.81 confirm that the stock shows partial resistance to the selling wave. However, the overall signal being SELL and the channel position near the upper zone at 48% indicate that current resistance is strong and the risk/reward balance remains limited if new long positions are opened. Although the WT=BUY signal points to medium-term recovery potential, it conflicts with the short-term SELL signal; therefore, the stock can only be considered for protecting existing positions under current conditions.

EREGL, Falling to 31.6 TL with a daily -9.97%, it became one of the index's sharpest decliners. The 60-day loss reaching -25.7% and the channel position at -36% in deep negative territory show the stock is under strong selling pressure. RSI falling to 28.72 into oversold territory and CCI20 reaching an extreme -403.37 technically suggest ground may form for rebound buying; however, ADX being low at 13.37 indicates the current move has weak trend strength and any possible rebound may remain limited. The short-term SELL signal being maintained and the WT signal being SELL do not support opening new long positions despite oversold oscillators; the current price level should only be monitored for stop-loss discipline on existing positions.

VAKBN, Falling to 30.06 TL with a daily -3.47%, it experienced one of the sharpest losses in the banking sector. The channel position at -17% in negative territory and CCI20 at -294.74 increase the risk of the stock slipping below channel support. Although RSI approaching oversold at 33.93 and StochK at bottom levels of 8.96 bring technical rebound potential to the agenda, the overall signal being STRONG SELL and the WT signal being SELL indicate the downtrend may continue. ADX being low at 17.96 shows the trend is not strong but the direction is downward; therefore, the stock should be monitored as one of the leading indicators of weakness in the banking sector.

5. Fundamental Analysis — Company Evaluation

Fundamental Analysis — Company Assessment

In terms of balance sheet sizes, holding companies clearly stand out in their financial statements. KCHOL 3.615.15 billion TL and SAHOL With a current asset size of 2.790.07 billion TL, it ranks among the most liquid structures in the sector. The current asset volume of these two companies points to a size larger than the total of all other companies in the index. Especially SAHOL' with the support of technical signals (WT=BUY), the potential to use balance sheet liquidity as a buffer against the current selling pressure constitutes an important anchor for medium-term positions.

On the industrial and production side, THYAO With 512.19 billion TL and EKGYO It draws attention with 387.01 billion TL in current assets. THYAO' The high current asset volume of can be considered a reflection of its operational scale. In contrast, EREGL' despite experiencing a sharp decline of -9.97% daily, maintaining a current asset size of 269.67 billion TL raises the question of whether the company's balance sheet structure has fully priced in this drop. When the technical outlook in the oversold zone (RSI 28.7) is evaluated together with the support provided by the balance sheet size, it may create a basis for short-term bargain buying.

One of the areas where sectoral fragility is most evident is the fertilizer and chemicals side. GUBRF with 48.99 billion TL and ASTOR with 47.91 billion TL in current assets, they rank among the relatively small-balance-sheet companies in the index. These two companies losing -10% and -5% on a daily basis, respectively, shows that balance sheets with low liquidity are more vulnerable to selling pressure. PETKM' with 41.74 billion TL and SASA' with 42.00 billion TL in current assets paint a similar picture; in this group, balance sheet scale does not stand out as a factor limiting volatility in price movements.

In banking and non-financial services, VAKBN' carrying the risk of closing below channel support reveals the depth of sectoral selling pressure regardless of balance sheet size. TCELL with 180.56 billion TL and TTKOM with 109.44 billion TL in current assets, although showing a relatively strong balance sheet structure on the telecommunications side, oversold conditions in technical indicators (CCI20 below -300) show that this liquidity is insufficient to support the price. Overall, current asset size should not be considered alone as an indicator of resilience; companies' debt structures and cash flow cycles will also be decisive under the current selling pressure.

6. Risk Management and Scenarios

Short-Term Scenarios and Portfolio Shield

XU030's close at 13.874.24 brings the test of permanence below the 14.000 psychological support to the agenda. The main scenario is that the index continues to trade below its previous close at 14.010.86 and selling pressure persists. In this case, weakness in stocks with deepening daily losses, especially VAKBN (%‑3.47), TCELL (%‑ 3.43) and EREGL (%‑ 9.97), can be expected to spread to the index. For the downside scenario to strengthen, XU030 needs to remain permanently below 13.874.24 and especially the (AKBNK, ISCTR, YKBNK) STRONG SELL signals in banking stocks need to continue. If this scenario is invalidated, i.e., if the index settles above 14.000, then oscillators in the oversold zone (e.g., AKBNK CCI20 -306.58 and TCELL CCI20 -326.76) a technical rebound buying triggered by these levels may come to the agenda; however, even in this case, strong volume support is required to reverse the current trend.

Increasing the cash ratio as a portfolio protection shield stands out as the priority strategy. The presence of SELL or STRONG SELL signals in nearly all of the 30 stocks in the data set negatively affects the risk/reward balance of opening new long positions. Therefore, it is planned to increase the cash weight in the model portfolio and hold limited positions only in TUPRS andSAHOL stocks showing relative resilience. TUPRS' s daily positive divergence of 2.41% and 60-day return of 24.4% indicate the existence of momentum independent of the index in the energy sector; while SAHOL' s WT signal being BUY creates a partial buffer against the selling wave in the holding group. However, in all positions other than these two stocks, especially in stocks carrying STRONG SELL signals and falling below channel support like VAKBN, EKGYO andTTKOM stop-loss discipline must be strictly maintained. Although the flat course in USD/TRY (0.04%) limits additional pressure from exchange rate effects, the 1.01% decline in dollar terms keeps exit pressure alive for foreign investors.

7. Recommended Model Portfolio

Recommended Model Portfolio

The weight of "Strong Sell" signals across the market and the WT signal being SELL in nearly all of the 30 stocks discourage aggressive positioning in the model portfolio. In this picture, considering signal strength, Pearson correlation coefficient (r), and channel position in the data set, limited positions are recommended only for two relatively resilient stocks; the remaining weight is kept in cash to protect against a possible downward move. TUPRS, stands out as the only positively diverging stock in the energy sector with a daily return of 2.41% and a 60-day positive divergence of 24.4%; while SAHOL, as the only holding stock with a BUY WT signal, carries the potential to avoid mid-term selling. ASELS' s WT signal is BUY, but the oscillator votes being weighted toward STRONG SELL and its 60-day return remaining in negative territory do not provide sufficient justification to open a position.